Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Starting to wonder about the blue wave Date:   6/6/2018 1:06:44 PM

Yesterday's primaries were not what one would expect for a blue wave.  That is especially true in Calfornia where they were hoping their jungle primary would block out the GOP altogether.  Didn't even come close to working out that way and it diminshes the opportunity to pick up House seats.  I'm in Calfornia right now and the complaints are many about the current state of affairs here vis-a-vis taxes, housing costs, etc.  Newsome is promising higher taxes which is not exactly what the people want but despite that, they don't think he will lose.  For sure having a GOP running for Governor instead of two Dems will boost Republican turnout.  That helps a lot with the House elections.

Same was true in many other states where the turnout numbers were not remotely what you would expect in a wave election.  I still think the chances of the Democrats retaking the House are better than even but it's definitely much less than what it was a year ago and is trending away from that.  Latest generic now has the GOP at +1 which I don't believe is accurate but it does reflect a trend.  Of course, much could happen between now and November.  As for the Senate, as of today I find it hard to imagine a takeover.  As of today it looks like the GOP may well pick up some Senate seats.  Time will tell on that as well.