| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
AP presidential poll: All even
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Date:
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10/22/2008 1:25:16 PM
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| Name: |
MrHodja
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| Subject: |
AP presidential poll: All even
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Date:
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10/22/2008 1:36:01 PM
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Maybe there are level-headed people out there who don't buy into the hysteria and idol worship.
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| Name: |
GoneFishin
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| Subject: |
AP presidential poll: All even
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Date:
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10/22/2008 1:56:32 PM
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I must be looking at a different AP Poll. I see the AP showing the Texas Longhorns in 1st place and Alabama in 2nd.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
AP presidential poll: All even
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Date:
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10/22/2008 2:58:05 PM
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I think it was Colin Powells endorsement as he started looking for a job.
I looked at the detail of this poll, and they still polled more democrats than republicans. But it was amazing when asked forget who you will vote for and then they asked if McCain has the right qualifications to be president and it was 78% said yes, definitely. When they asked the same about Obama the number was only 48%. Which tells me that only his support feels he is qualified, while nearly everyone feels McCain is qualified. The independents and undecided will play a huge role in deciding the next president if they get out and vote.
Remember the New hampshire democratic primary (I think it was New Hampshire) that the polls showed Obama winning by anywhere from 12 to 20 percent and he lost by almost 10% to Hillary. A lot of Obama's supporters are flakes and may never vote. That is why the corruption of Acorn registering these "fake" voters and getting them to vote with an absentee ballot at the same time is so dangerous. While most should not even be registered, even the legal ones would probably never come back out and vote if it was not handled that way.
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| Name: |
GoneFishin
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| Subject: |
FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
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Date:
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10/22/2008 2:59:08 PM
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I think this is a ploy by FOX to have Obama so far ahead that his supporters stay away from voting since he is so far ahead. Sounds like Rush and Sean are working overtime to steal the election from ACORN!!!!!!!
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| Name: |
AUCATZ
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| Subject: |
FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
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Date:
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10/22/2008 3:15:46 PM
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You Silly, Silly man. You just couldn't resist that, could you? lol
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
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Date:
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10/22/2008 3:32:42 PM
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There is something askew with the polling in this cycle. There has always been differences when you look at the source of the poll. I tend to think internal polling provides the best result because there is no hidden agenda. Each candidate wants to know exactly what is really going on versus media-driven polls that may carry an agenda.
What is fascinating is that despite the media polls McCain is working hard in states like Pennsylvania and Colorado because internal polls show it is close. I think Obama's plan is to rely almost exclusively on big media buys as he has the cash to do so. Will be interesting to see how boots on the ground differ from television and radio ads. Apparently Gov Rendell of Pa has sent two letters to Obama over the last week asking him to visit PA and send the Clintons.
I really expect that this is a much, much closer race than the media-driven polls are showing. This is just too different an election than they have seen in a long time (no incumbents, black/woman, etc.). These firms rely heavily on their methodology for "normalizing" the results and for that they have to make a bunch of assumptions that simply cannot be counted on. Many, if not all the polls that show Obama with a big lead have twice as many Democrats as Republicans responding. That seems to be the preferred methodology although I don't understand why.
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| Name: |
AUCATZ
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| Subject: |
FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
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Date:
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10/22/2008 3:57:44 PM
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And, don't forget the last election...when the results defied all the polls.
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| Name: |
GoneFishin
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| Subject: |
FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
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Date:
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10/22/2008 4:28:29 PM
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You are so right on the validity of the polls as the country is really split. I can't see 9 points as real poll numbers. I wish it were tomorrow and we could move on.
That is why it is important to vote early and often for your candidate.
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| Name: |
MrHodja
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| Subject: |
FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
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Date:
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10/22/2008 4:33:56 PM
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Early and often...the Democratic way!
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| Name: |
4PAR
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| Subject: |
FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
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Date:
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10/23/2008 10:53:46 AM
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For those of us that support McCain we have got to hope the Independents and undecideds get out and vote for McCain and don't waste their vote on candidates that have no chance of winning (Ralph Nader, or some write in like Ron Paul). Another group to consider is the Democrats that are still huge Hillary supporters. I know some that have said they will not vote for McCain but they also are not comfortable with supporting Obama. I guess the best scenario would be for them just not to vote at all.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
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Date:
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10/25/2008 10:54:16 AM
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I got some additional insight into the way they do their polling. Apparently they try to project turnout and then weight their polls to reflect what they anticipate will happen. That is why they have weighted the polls with so many Democrats, they expect a larger turnout. That at least makes sense to me if they are right about the turnout. One reason why voting is so important if you want McCain or Obama to win. Bush won in 2004 mostly by turnout. It is also why each party has to appeal to its base and why the media is trying to so discourage Republicans and Indendents that will vote for McCain from even coming out to the polls.
It seems that turnout for early voting has been evenly split so far so it looks like what will happen on Nov 4th in terms of turnout is crucial. I think that is why Carville said "You konow what you call a candidate that relies on the youth vote? Loser!". If the youth and black voters come out in large numbers and Republicans/Independents for McCain don't it will be a landslide.
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