Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish
Date:	3/19/2020 3:37:11 PM (updated 3/19/2020 4:02:15 PM)

So the data is in and has been examined for the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined.  Some highlights from the study:

• Out of the 3,711 passengers only around 17% of the passengers were infected, which is about 630 passengers.
• Out of the 630 passengers that were infected a total of 7 died which is a 1.1% mortality rate (which is skewed upward due to the age dsitribution of the passengers).
• Of the 3,711 passengers 58% of them were over age 60.  Only 24% of the general population is over age 65.
• The age range of those that died was from 70-80 with 6 of the 7 between 70 and 79 (which accounted for around 1/3rd of the passengers).  There were zero deaths age 69 and below which accounted for the remaining 2,000 or so passengers.
• Approximately 50% of those infected were asymptomatic.  Those most likely to be symptomatic were in the age group 20-49.  Children under age 9 were all asymptomatic.
• 75% of those over age 80 were not infected.

So what does this tell us?  First of all, the inflated mortality rates being discussed are faulty because they are basing them only on confirmed cases.  There are likely tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of cases that were never tested.  Secondly, while the mortality rate appears to be higher than the common influenza (which is 0.1%), it is actually lower for all age groups, including seniors.  If you adjust for the skewed ages of the passengers, which isn't easy, the mortality rate is likely on par with the common influenza if not lower  Third, despite being in an environment that is highly likely to be transmissive of any virus, 83% of the passengers were not infected.

If you were to extrapolate this to the entire population it would be a huge error in logic.  In no way are the conditions for the general population remotely similar to the close confines of a cruise ship filled with a disproportionate number of seniors.  It does explain the higher numbers in urban settings given a relatively closer proximity of the people using mass transit, etc.  However, the increasing number of cases we are seeing are a result of increased testing and in no way represents some sort of pandemic.  Don't count on the media reporting these results.  As this data becomes more widely available and as the news of potentially effective and commonly available therapies are available we will see the panic fade away and the markets to begin to recover as bsuinesses reopen and people get back to work. 

Keep calm.....chive on.  Prepare for Archie and Goofy to be depressed that more people didn't die and the economy is recovering from the media-induced panic.  And as Ilhan Omar and Gov. Cuomo recently said, President Trump is doing a fantastic job.  I agree with them.

Here is the raw data from the study.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish
Date:	3/19/2020 3:59:05 PM

So this is not then 47 time I have died since Obama was 1st elected?

thats a relief.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish
Date:	3/19/2020 7:14:01 PM

Was there a shortage of test kits when these 3711 were tested?

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish
Date:	3/19/2020 8:10:27 PM

I'm really not sure what your point is.  I watch the update every day from the President and the Administrations team and nothing that they are saying would suggest that this is not a contagious disease that is widespread among the population.  I don't think you can extrapolate information from one cruise ship.  There are too many variables you are not accounting for.  If it was that easy I'm sure the Administration and the medical community would be downplaying the danger, since it is killing the economy.  Your sample size is just to small to be significant.  

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Hound you are correct
Date:	3/19/2020 9:26:36 PM

but perhaps MM's stats may be correct for the ''Wuhan Virus''...whatever that is...but have little or nothing to illuminate any of us on the Covid-19 Virus.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Hound you are correct
Date:	3/19/2020 9:49:48 PM

Yes we need to learn all we can about this Chinese virus that originated in Wuhan.   China withheld valuable info in the fall, silenced whistleblowers, and probably killed doctor who exposed it.  

A good bottomline outcome will be USA removing medical supply and drug dependence on folks we cannot trust....the Chinese who might have laboratory created the virus.

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	Are You Selectively Dense?
Date:	3/19/2020 10:04:34 PM

The Wuhan Virus and COVID-19 are one in the same.  Ignoring the truth does not make it a non-truth.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	And you have tunnel vision Mr H
Date:	3/19/2020 11:28:57 PM (updated 3/19/2020 11:42:36 PM)

Get off your high horse and try to be helpful for a change.

Calling it something it is not for political reasons is not the ''truth'' nor is it helping anybody through this.  Have you heard Dr Anthony Fauci, the CDC Director, or any other person in the medical field call it anything other than what it is?  It goes both ways.  You know a Japanese Newspaper is running a research piece saying this actually started in the US in November but was not diagnosed as a new and virulent virus because it was flu season and it was simple written off as the flu. They claim it was then unintentually carried to China by an infected American and started running rampant through a crowded seafood market in Wuhan.  That story is just as useless and unhelpful as MM's and Trump's Chinese ''monkey meat'' BS!

BTW:  When His Majesty made his stomach turning appearance at CDC in Atlanta on Friday March 6th there were 240 infected persons in the US. Tomorrow just 2 weeks later there will be between 17,000 and 19,000!  That deserves more than unhelpful smart-ass nonsense from you, MM or Donald J. Trump!

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	And you have tunnel vision Mr H
Date:	3/20/2020 7:52:11 AM

First I've heard of the Japanese theory.  One thing about it doesn't quite add up. If that one individual brought it from the US to China, was he the only single individual in the US to have it?  Would seem to me that if it existed here in November we would be leading the pack with infections, not having a surge after infected individuals traveled here from Wuhan.  And yes, the numbers confirmed having COVID-19 are increasing exponentially, but so are the numbers of individuals being tested.  I am concerned about the spread because the virus has no positive side and people are losing their lives because of it.  

Out of curiosity, what would you have the Government do that it isn't already doing?  I see Government and industry coming together to help solve the problem, and cooperation seemingly abounds.  

Finally, what do you intend to accomplish by ranting about the other posters and their opinions?  Do you have some existential need to convince them (and maybe yourself) of your superior intellect and cognitive and deductive skills?  Or do you just need to be argumentative?  As I said before those folks aren't dummies and maybe there is merit to their opinions. Ok, off my "high horse". Have to go meet the surveyor about some land we are purchasing.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	And you have tunnel vision Mr H
Date:	3/20/2020 8:48:13 AM (updated 3/20/2020 9:17:27 AM)

1/  I completely agree with your comments on the Japanese story and pointed out it, just like the ''Wuhan'' virus drumbeat coming from Trump and Fox, is a distraction that is doing more harm than good.  It is officially designated as ''Covid-19''...why not call it that rather than trying to divide us even further by politicizing even a dangerous illness?

2/  At long last, for the most part the Feds are doing useful work, but it is a scandal that the Federal government in general and the president in particular didn't step up to the plate in a big way weeks before they did.  Standing up and telling the nation that this was not a serious problem and that we ''only have 15 cases and soon we will have none'' was the height of insanity when the the medical experts were advising that it had to be confronted.  With real leadership at the top, jobs, money and lives would have been saved because the cooperation and sense of urgency we are seeing now would have started weeks earlier

3/  I suggest you put me on ignore if my ''constant'' bitching about Donald Trump bothers you!  It has nothing to do with my ''intellenence'' nor your ''intellegence'' and it has everything to do with my honest fear that this man is perfectly willing to destroy this nation in all the ways that matter.  If you feel differently so be it, but as long as the 1st admendment is still on the books I plan to stay on my ''high horse'' and will not shut up because I see a real possibility that it might no longer be there in the not too distance future!

God Bless America!

Quick question....from 2009 - 2016 there were several people on this forum that were every bit as down on Barack Obama in every way possible as I am on Trump.  Is it because you thought they were correct in their assessmens that you never seemed as disturbed with their obsession as you obviously are with my disgust with the current disaster in the WH?

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	And you have tunnel vision Mr H
Date:	3/20/2020 8:57:20 AM

"With real leadership at the top, jobs, money and lives would have been saved because the cooperation and sense of urgency we are seeing now would have started weeks earlier" 

Do you have statistics and data that would prove your statement Archie or did this come from a talking head on MSNBC?

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish
Date:	3/20/2020 9:00:32 AM (updated 3/20/2020 9:22:27 AM)

Well I thought my point was pretty straight forward but I will state it again.  The data from the cruise ship should give us some optimism that given the reaction to the virus maybe we will be far better off than the prognostication of doom we hear every day on the news.  As for your comment about the small sample, new drugs are approved by the FDA every day that are tested on fewer human study participants.  I deal with data, math and science every day and like to apply facts, logic and reason and leave emotion out of it.  This data from this study to me is encouraging and unlike the Archie's of the world I can still see reasons to have hope instead of hoping for the worst.

As for the politicians, you can be sure that their reaction is being driven by politics as much as always.  They are going to present the worst case scenario because to do otherwise would be political suicide.  And as Dr. Birx correctly pointed out yesterday we will be seeing a spike in confirmed cases because there is a spike in testing.  I have been saying this for some time because it is logically correct.  Ergo, a spike in confirmed cases cannot be used to make projections about the rates of infection.  To do so is scientific malpractice....which means the media will find someone to carry that water for them.  

All the prognostications of doom serve one valuable purpose.  They will hopefully get people to take the recommendations by the CDC seriously and I hope they do so we can get back to normal as soon as possible.  And let me guess, Archie probably readily agreed with you although I can't see it because I have him on ignore.  

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	CRD
Date:	3/20/2020 9:33:11 AM (updated 3/20/2020 9:38:07 AM)

There are ample examples of concern coming from CDC, NIH and the WHO back in January.  If you are really interested in the truth do a little research on your own.  You might want to start with reading the Jan 28th heads-up editorial in that left wing rag The Wall Street Journal by Dr. Luciano Borio who served on the Global Health Unit of the National Security Council until that unit was abolished by the president.

Name:	Lifer -	Reply
Subject:	CRD
Date:	3/20/2020 9:53:10 AM

That "abolishing" lie has been repeatedly debunked and proven to be just a lie.  Some departments were consolidated and some duplicate and unneccassary jobs were eliminated.  NOBODY shut any department you fool.  Do some research of your own it is starting to be embarassing for you but you are to dense to realize it.  An alleged architect that argues medicine with a doctor is an idiot.  You "know" so much that just isn't so.  It really is sad.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	CRD
Date:	3/20/2020 10:18:30 AM

How about we go back to the meetings of the House Oversight and Reform Committee,  since Cummings and Carolyn Maloney assumed Chairs in 2019 ( 116th Congresses) charged with investigating among other items, KNOWN disaster unpreparedness as brought to the committee's attention by previous Chairman Gowdy.  HHS was negligent in producing documents for Chairman Gowdy and he raised serious concerns about our preparedness in general back then.    Look at the GAO hearings chaired by Cummings in 2019.  At the top of the list of governmental shortcomings discussed in this hearing was CLIMATE CHANGE!!!????  For God's sake Archie, for all of your diatribe about us mental midgets here in suburban Atlanta and Lake Martin, you don't seem to want to dig very much further than your comfort zone when supporting your positions.     

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	CRD it is hard to believe
Date:	3/20/2020 12:39:48 PM (updated 3/20/2020 12:44:09 PM)

you as a medical professional continues to act like a “mental midget”, which you are certainly not, and still hang your hat on the biased back and forth partisan BS of politicians rather than your fellow medical professionals.  I guess if you have to excuse one side because the other side does it to you will never believe anything a unbiased neutral expert ever says.  Even you and others using your MO should be able to admit that we all would have been better served had senators of both parties sounded the alarm bells rather than getting on the phone to their brokers to cash in after the intelligence committee got a heads-up that this was serious! I’m pretty sure history will prove me right and that is very sad because it should not have been that way.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	CRD it is hard to believe
Date:	3/20/2020 1:58:56 PM

Regarding equity cashing in, certainly will generate ethics inquiry.  I concur with your disbelief and anger.  Rep/Dem/Indep does not matter.  They were most assuredly in contact with their financial managers/planners and if they were not, then even more concerning that they would allow this to occur with no oversight on their part.

Regarding my reliance on politicians, I am one of the myriad of providers not necessarily in the ER's or ICU's but on the frontline of treatment of patients right now.  As I have said before, I am fully informed and protect myself, my staff and patients with the most accurate information and precautions.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Good for you
Date:	3/20/2020 2:18:15 PM

too bad so many are still not convinced they need to make a similar commitment.