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Feb
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 2:07:08 PM
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Someone sent me this information. I can not vouch for the accuracy, but thought I would pass it along.
The update gives some statistics about sales in Baldwin County.
Year To Date (YTD) in 2005 sold 845 condos. YTD in 2006 363 condos.
YTD 2005 the sold listing were an average of 133 days on the market. YTD 2006 the sold listings were an average of 303 days on the market.
YTD 236 Lots were sold in 2005. 65 have been sold in 2006.
Homes sold in 2005 YTD were 418. Homes sold YTD in
2006 204.
If the above is true, it paints a rather dismal picture for the beach. Of course, real estate is rather stagnant in most places it seems. Lake Martins appears to be an exception possible bacause it has been under priced for so long. I know this is comparing apples to oranges with beach and lake. I did not receive any price figures for the above analysis. It too would be interesting.
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 2:09:38 PM
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Feb, where could we get similar stats for the Lake Martin area?
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 2:30:05 PM
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Hi Osms, These stats came indirectly to me from a Remax Realtor in Baldwin County. I would think most Realtors would have this kind of data. I have seen stats for the area but generally it was for Counties as opposed to just Lake front. That information tells us nothing. Hope someone else can help answer you question and my interest.
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| Name: |
TotheLake
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 3:46:42 PM
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My mom lives in Gulf Shores and owns an association management company down there. She said that properties are not selling because people cannot afford the insurance. Most insurance is 3x the amount of the home they are purchasing. There was an article in the Montgomery Advertiser about the beach property and insurance a couple weeks ago.
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| Name: |
ot
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 4:01:48 PM
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my father in law lives in Baldwin County, there are still boats on the side of the road and piers torn up everywhere. that area is still cleaning up after 2 hurricanes. Katrina and there was one also the year before it. he lives on the Bon Secour river and some parts still are a huge mess. Gulf Shores is still rebuilding as well.
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| Name: |
head
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 4:24:06 PM
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The sales on the Gulf are dead The insurance on some of the beach front condos are as high as 15000 a year for each owner. There are over 1200 plus units on the gulf coast for sale. Many bought preconstruction thinking they would flip them With 10 or 20 % letter of credit are now having to close or just giving up the down payment which was the 10 or 20 % I know one that has 4 with a price tag @ 600000 each fig the math! They hope the 10 or 20% will all they will have to pay
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| Name: |
TotheLake
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 4:30:48 PM
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He's not too far from my mom. She's on the intercoastal at Sailboat Bay.
We were down there about 2 weeks ago and it is looking better but still messed up.
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| Name: |
ot
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 4:51:02 PM
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i was there in June and the one thing i noticed the most was the OCEAN. you can actually see the water now that all those condos are gone, although they are building at a record pace, i just loved being able to drive down the main drag and see water!!!! wish that wouldn't change. it is also good to see the sand and dunes being reformed!
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| Name: |
TotheLake
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| Subject: |
Baldwin County Sales (Beach?)
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Date:
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8/9/2006 4:59:48 PM
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True. I believe it is County Road 4 that goes around the intercostal is having condo and high rises built on it just like the beach.
It was really nice being able to see the ocean from the road.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 9:32:09 AM
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I think are slowing noticeably. For the first time in a couple of years I am seeing price reductions on existing houses. Some of this is probably from overpricing in the first place though. Lots if "fishing" going on out there plus some Realtors are agressivively pursuing listings in a tight market by being overly optomistic, shall we say.
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| Name: |
FLee
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 9:43:44 AM
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I haven't heard a lot about the affect of higher interest rates but I am sure this is a big contributor. Sales were high when prices were lower and they were high when prices shot up. It seems to me that they started to slow down a bit at Lake Martin only after the interest rates continued to increase.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 9:47:18 AM
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I wonder if these McMansions are being financed or are just 1031 swaps...
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| Name: |
NCSue
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 9:50:07 AM
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If a 1031, wouldn't the owners have to rent them for at least 2 years before living in them?
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| Name: |
FLee
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 9:51:30 AM
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At that high end range, I'm sure there is a lot of that. Especially since you must pull trigger within 180 days.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 10:15:04 AM
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Nope it doesn't have to be income producing real estate, just investment real estate. Second homes qualify as well I believe.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 10:17:57 AM
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That's probably why the builder program at the Ridge was successful... can't build a house in 180 days there......or even including the extra 45.
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
Told ya' soooo1.
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Date:
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8/10/2006 10:23:01 AM
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 10:27:50 AM
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So, what I am to understand on Lake Martin. Even if demand exceeds supply. Those demaning it don't have the jack to pay for any available supply. Therefore, those from other parts of the cournty with the jack will discover and acquire the limited supply. What I tend to hear or read on the Forum lately is most of those in posession have no desire to part with their piece of Heaven and the supply is dwindling even more. Look at the post from Georgia Peach. One individual indicates they may want to sell and ten people are emailing wanting to know more. Then there is the question as to whether APCO will have lots to lease in the future. Another unknoown for the supply side.
I am not ready to paint a gloomy picture for Lake Martin Property. Give it another year, and the prices will be even higher.
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| Name: |
TotheLake
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 11:12:39 AM
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We have our place for sale and have about 3-4 phone calls on it each weekend. (We have it listed by owner). Everyone loves it until we tell them the price. We had one couple wanting it but said it was too much and they were going to go find something cheaper on the lake. Dh and I said good luck because ours is about as cheap as they get on the lake according to the real estate web site. I just don't think the area we are in has caught up to where all the other properties are. I believe if we don't sell it this summer it'll be sold by next summer. I also think that the prices for gas are keeping some people away this summer as well. Particuliarly those that come to the lake for the day without a place to stay.
Just my two cents worth.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
Yas
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Date:
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8/10/2006 12:28:11 PM
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you did! You were right!
You know, I'm not negative on the longer term values at LM because of the restricted supply and the quality of the lake itself. The weird supply situation at LM will cause prices to be more volatile on the upside but relatively stable on the downside unless there is an economic disaster like '74. That's one reason I bought here. I happen to think we're on downside mode right now. Sure hope the McMansion owners' cash flow holds up....
I think high gas prices actually help not to mention the cost of insurance at the beach......
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| Name: |
boataholic
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 1:53:03 PM
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I agree it will be higher, but only 5-10% higher. Still good, but not the roughly 25% from each of the past three years. Unlikely we will see 25% again because the market has weeded out a lot of buyers. The potential buyers who can still afford property are confused and cautious. They know a friend or relative who bought a cabin three years ago and now they are shocked to find similar property listed for nearly double the price. Let the prices flatten until early next summer and some of them will be ready to buy. Those waiting for bargains after the bubble busts will be sorry.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 2:04:27 PM
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You are right ...there is not a bubble just a temporary decline. Only sellers that are unsure of the right price as evidenced by recent price cuts. Hard to really define such a small market....last count from someone who was knowledgeable on the board (I forget who) was like 200 houses on the market.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
Also
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Date:
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8/10/2006 2:15:26 PM
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You may not be getting calls from qualified buyers or buyers that are"adjusted" to the LM values.
When I started looking in 2000 I thought prices were a little high ( I figured lakefront would be cheap here in the "boonies") when actually they were not when compared to other lakes.
The problem in 2000 was there was not much on the market and some sellers were unsure of how to price or were "fishing". When the market became more active in 2002 you had a better sense of prices.
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| Name: |
boataholic
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 4:42:16 PM
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Of the 393 items on the realtors site today, if you eliminate lots and condos and anything marked sale pending, you have 171 for sale. Mostly houses but there are a few mobile homes and townhouses in that number. Unknown how many are on leased lots. Just for fun the numbers are: 27 listed at $399 thousand or less, 28 in the 400's, 38 in the 500's, 24 in the 600's, 28 in the 700-999 range and 26 over 1 million. Subdivide your price range into what part of the lake you want to be on and the potential buyer has few choices.
The lesson for those not on the lake who want to be on the lake: Unless you are rich enough to risk letting prices rise while you wait for the "right" property, you better grab the least objectionable property you can afford and start enjoying Lake Martin.
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| Name: |
FLee
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 5:04:46 PM
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I agree. If you could look from the perspective of August, 2007.....there are some good deals out there right now. Problem is, most of us look from the perspective of August, 2005.
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 5:12:04 PM
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I agree boataholic. I have seen more than a few places on Lake Martin I would not buy even if the price were drastically reduced. They just were not desirable places. They also had no potential even with improvements. How about a nice cabin at he the end of a slough behind a stacking warehouse of a marina.
OK, I am like you and I will sit back and let everyone debate all the other garbage and try to trash the value of waterfront property. Let them live in their dream world without a nice piece of waterfront property. It will not change a thing and values are going to continue to go up. The demand is still greater than the supply on Lake Martin..
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| Name: |
Jaws
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 9:00:45 PM
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Historically, any time an investment (I.E real estate) has exceeded a normal expected rate of return you will get what is known as a Reversion to the Mean. Example, from what I've read here in the past most people expect Lake Martin real estate to appreciate at 10-12% a year. At 10% an investment will double in value in 7.2 years. At 12% it will double in about 6 years. When I hear about prices doubling in 3 years, that's 25% annually. This is clearly not sustainable. Here is some trivia, A person who invested in the stock market (S&P) in July of 1996 has earned 8.2% annually for the last ten years even though they have less money than they had in 2000. From 1996-1999 returns were above 20% a year and guess what? we've had a reversion to the mean. Same thing is very likely to happen in real estate. My guess is that best case prices appreciate slightly for the next 4-5 years. Worst case, they don't go up at all. For those who own at the lake be thankful you do. You can't put a pricetag on the fun. For those who want to buy, make sure it's for the right reasons like family time and fun. Those expecting the 20% returns of the last 4 years will likely be disappointed if that is their sole purpose in buying.
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| Name: |
Jaws
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/10/2006 9:00:49 PM
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Historically, any time an investment (I.E real estate) has exceeded a normal expected rate of return you will get what is known as a Reversion to the Mean. Example, from what I've read here in the past most people expect Lake Martin real estate to appreciate at 10-12% a year. At 10% an investment will double in value in 7.2 years. At 12% it will double in about 6 years. When I hear about prices doubling in 3 years, that's 25% annually. This is clearly not sustainable. Here is some trivia, A person who invested in the stock market (S&P) in July of 1996 has earned 8.2% annually for the last ten years even though they have less money than they had in 2000. From 1996-1999 returns were above 20% a year and guess what? we've had a reversion to the mean. Same thing is very likely to happen in real estate. My guess is that best case prices appreciate slightly for the next 4-5 years. Worst case, they don't go up at all. For those who own at the lake be thankful you do. You can't put a pricetag on the fun. For those who want to buy, make sure it's for the right reasons like family time and fun. Those expecting the 20% returns of the last 4 years will likely be disappointed if that is their sole purpose in buying.
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| Name: |
MotorMan
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/11/2006 11:31:51 AM
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Madison, AL went from $40000 to $70000 in one year; a 75% inflation rate. It just means prices were quite low and people bought them up.
I am looking at a 800 sq ft house in Huntsville for $22,000. Prices vary.
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| Name: |
AUCATZ
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/11/2006 11:42:26 AM
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What part of the lake is your place on?
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| Name: |
TotheLake
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| Subject: |
LM Sales
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Date:
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8/11/2006 12:31:29 PM
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Dadeville at Old Bama Park.
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