| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 3:22:50 PM
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Check out the latest Rasmussen numbers on the President while he vacations at Marxists Vineyard. What is interesting is his strongly approve rating is below at 28% and the trend for both the approval and disapproval are pretty well established. He had nowhere to go but down but I have to admit I underestimated the American public's ability to recognize his as the statist that he is as quickly as they have.
A comment here about the approvel number. What it probably tells you is he is losing some support from the netroots/moveon.org/George Soros crowd as he waffles on the public option, sends more troops to Afghanistan, etc. That Bush dropped to the teens in his approval was because he lost of lot of conservative support.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 5:14:02 PM
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What is the Rassmussen (sp?) poll? I assume this is some right wing conservative poll?
I don't think it comes as a surprise that Obama's "strongly approve" numbers would go down, considering the unemployement. Americans want "quick fix" they don't want to hear that recovery will be slow. As a society, we've got the attention span of a bunch of gnats.
I think you would be surprised to find that "liberals" are not especially upset by Afghanistan. I have friends in that camp, and I think the majority of them think we should have been doing more in Afghanistan all along. It was Iraq that they objected to.
I don't think you'll find too many people that don't agree we should be going after the Taliban. And the time we wasted in Iraq has just given them a stronger toehold in Afghanistan.
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| Name: |
au67
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 5:58:43 PM
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Most of the Democrat gnats are well aware of all the pollsters since polling was such an integral part of Obama's campaign and now his administration. You can check out Rasmussen below.
URL: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 7:10:22 PM
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I feel about polls the way I feel about statistics in general -- tell me what you want the result to be, and I will make the results of my poll fit. It all depends on how the questions are worded and who you ask.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 7:18:54 PM
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The Rasmussen poll has been criticized for emphasis on Strongly approve vs strongly disapprove with almost no mention of the somwhat approve or somwhat disapprove. I don't know that it is ideologically tilted but it has consistantly shown Obama's numbers below other polls. If you go to Pollster.com you can follow a graph with all major polling over the months and the Rasmussen numbers stand out giving the highest disapprove and lowest approve. Even so it was only in the last couple of weeks it has shown Obama negative a point or two above his positive and is still the only poll that shows such. Most polls continue to show Obama approval 10 to 15 points above his disapproval. Sorry MM but these are the facts.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
there are 3 types of lies
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Date:
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8/24/2009 7:21:41 PM
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Lies, d**n lies and statistics
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| Name: |
au67
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 7:23:19 PM
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Were Bush's approval numbers accurate?
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| Name: |
wix
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 7:24:35 PM
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Don't you wonder what the clowns above would say if o-BAMAs numbers were all in the + column.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 7:36:37 PM
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Wix, why are you so afraid of the facts. You don't have to like them but facts are facts and the truth is the truth. As for whether Bush's numbers were accurate...sorry I don't know because the country and the pollsters have moved on...Bush is not being polled anymore.
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| Name: |
wix
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| Subject: |
Archy, are you drunk
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Date:
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8/24/2009 8:54:36 PM
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Go back and read my post. Not sure of your problem, but I didn't say a word about Bush. Your paranoia is working overtime.
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| Name: |
au67
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 8:56:43 PM
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Don't know if you will consider the link below as fact, but it's just one of many that credit Rasmussen (and Pew) with the best polling in the 2008 campaign.
URL: http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
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| Name: |
au67
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| Subject: |
Archy, are you drunk
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Date:
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8/24/2009 8:58:59 PM
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I think he was replying to one of my posts above.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 9:13:20 PM
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Wow ... I don't think the american people want any more of a quick fix than they ever wanted. The difference Obama continues to not want to take responsibility and blame Bush. But when the situation was reversed, Bush did not blame Clinton ... he demonstrated leadership and put the "right" policies in place to grow the economy and put people back to work.
The problem is, Obama's policies are way wrong and he and the liberals will not admit it.
I'll avoid the comment on Iraq ... we will not agree that it was the wrong strategy. I think it kept us safe and put a real dent in the whole terrorist network.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 9:15:09 PM
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Wow ... I don't think the american people want any more of a quick fix than they ever wanted. The difference Obama continues to not want to take responsibility and blame Bush. But when the situation was reversed, Bush did not blame Clinton ... he demonstrated leadership and put the "right" policies in place to grow the economy and put people back to work.
The problem is, Obama's policies are way wrong and he and the liberals will not admit it.
I'll avoid the comment on Iraq ... we will not agree that it was the wrong strategy. I think it kept us safe and put a real dent in the whole terrorist network.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 9:15:12 PM
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Wow ... I don't think the american people want any more of a quick fix than they ever wanted. The difference Obama continues to not want to take responsibility and blame Bush. But when the situation was reversed, Bush did not blame Clinton ... he demonstrated leadership and put the "right" policies in place to grow the economy and put people back to work.
The problem is, Obama's policies are way wrong and he and the liberals will not admit it.
I'll avoid the comment on Iraq ... we will not agree that it was the wrong strategy. I think it kept us safe and put a real dent in the whole terrorist network.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 9:20:20 PM
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Odd that when it was all favorable to Obama it was the voice of the american people ... now they are meaningless.
Come on Hound ... that is not like you. Obama is faultering and the americsn people are coming to their senses before it is too late. The man and his administration is a total disaster. What do we need 37 Czars for? That is scary that he thinks government needs to be controlling so much.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 9:24:41 PM
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Not true ... look at the trend and history on the web site. It should Obama very favorable early on. Opinion and support is shifting big time ... i work with a number of people that were Obama supporters ... bumper stickers and all ... now they are openly critical and saying what a mistake they made. But they all wanted to believe the speeches ... but reality has been a disaster.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 9:27:45 PM
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It sure seems you are the one that has trouble handling the FACTS ... you are in denial that your Messiah is falling like a rock.
Crash and burn .... :)
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 9:34:08 PM
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Polls are not statistics but I would agree they can be manipulated and regularly are. As for Rasmussen Hound, his polls are actually very well respected and he was the closest to predicting the election for Obama in November. So sorry, it is not a right wing poll.
As for Archie, I don't disagree with your analysis of other polls. However, what sets Rasmussen apart is he claims to only poll likely voters. You will have to peruse his website to see what you think of his methodology but he has been very accurate.
My point with the PAI, which is just one indicator, is that Obama's ratings are dropping like a rock. I seem to remember you really liking this particular poll back in the winter when it was favorable for Obama. But just for emphasis, Gallup's poll has Obama's approval below 50% for the first time.
I will grant that picking polls is open to cherry picking but the fact is, and unless you want to completely destroy your credibility, you will admit that in all the polls Obama is dropping and has been since the stimulus package/auto takeover/Obamacare. Recent Gallup said more people ID themselves as Republican than Dems in every single state. But I suppose Gallup is a right wing poll also.
He is droppig and I will continue to use the PAI as my preferred index. It shows what conservatives understood from the beginning and what many independents and moderates that are not overwhelmed by pride are beginning to realize, that Obama is not who he said he was in the election. I hope he shows more ambition than ideology but I am beginning to think it is the latter.....
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Obama PAI now at -12
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Date:
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8/24/2009 9:43:50 PM
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Hound, see my note below about Rasmussen. It is not a right-wing poll and actually most accurately and consistently picked Obama. What you are telling me is that Obama has not lost the netroots/moveon.org crowd. If so, then they are about all that is left in the strongly approve column and Obama is in even worse trouble than I thought. What it means is he has almost no independents/moderates in the strongly approve column. That is indeed bad news for him.
Maybe I am reading more into your post about the support of the far left. I have read several items lately that they were angry with him on initially punting on the public option and decision to broaden the war in Afghanistan. Granted this came from places like the dailykos and huffingtonpost and maybe doesn't represent mainstream liberal thinking. I really don't know. I just know that when Bush's numbers dropped into the teens it was because he lost part of his conservative base.
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| Name: |
alahusker
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| Subject: |
A trend, none the less..
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Date:
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8/24/2009 11:03:02 PM
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Galllup, hardly a bastion of conservatism (Son worked for them for years, still leans left, but is coming around after a 2nd kid)had our President at 68% approval rate in Feb, now 52%. President Obama had a 12% disapproval rate in Feb 09, now it's at 40%. But hey, what's public opinion?? Most of us favor federal government looking at health care problems, but given the track record with USPS, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, ad naseum, another takeover?? Not!
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
A trend, none the less..
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Date:
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8/25/2009 8:17:00 AM
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Which was my point exactly. Whether the numbers are 100% reflective of reality is not the issue. Anytime you take a sample and apply it to the whole there is inherent error. What is indisputable, except to the Baghdad Bob's of the world, is that his numbers have not only fallen but have done so faster than Bush. That to me is surprising, pleasantly so.
The Obama supporters were flogging us several months ago with polls about how popular he was but apparently now every poll that shows him in free fall they are all right wing and can't be trusted. If you live by that sword you shall surely die by that sword. They can't have it both ways.
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| Name: |
wix
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| Subject: |
Archy, are you drunk
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Date:
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8/25/2009 9:17:36 AM
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Yeah, I knew that, but he called my by name so I thought I'd have a little fun and maybe drag him out of his fog.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Nice try
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Date:
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8/25/2009 11:38:05 AM
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Its not statistics when you say of the 1,500 people surveyed, 40% said they strongly disapprove of the President's performance and 28% said they strongly approve of the President's performance. That is simple presentation of the data. Now if they performed some analysis on the data, for example a calculation of the arithmetic or logarithmic mean, the standard deviation or the normality of the data set or used common methods like extrapolation, determined correlation coefficients, conducted a student's t-test, ANOVA, etc. or used other more sophisticated methods like Monte Carlo analysis I would agree.
We use statistical analyses in the environmental industry all the time and I know the difference between simple data presentation and data manipulation. This is a case of the former and not the latter....nice try though....
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
No response to my point
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Date:
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8/26/2009 7:05:55 PM
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about your lack of knowledge of what statistics are? Better to be thought a fool than make a post like that and remove all doubt.....
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| Name: |
au67
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| Subject: |
No response to my point
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Date:
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8/27/2009 8:55:01 AM
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Just like the "drive-by media", he's moved on.
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