Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Stock market signaling a recession?
Date:	9/2/2015 12:19:53 PM

Read an interesting article in Fiscal Times about how the stock market may be signalling a coming recession.  Also read that Canada is officially in recession.  China is a train wreck.  I suspect given that we are 84 months into a very weak recovery and the average length between recessions is 54 months we are probably due for a slowdown.  Will be interesting to see if the Fed raises rates in their next meeting as they are signaling they will.  I suspect that even if the labor numbers are good they will put it off another quarter.  If they do raise rates going into a recession we will be in for a rough ride.  Stocks will drop like a rock and that will negatively impact consumer sentiment, the driver of the economy.

Get ready for a rough ride.........

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Stock market signaling a recession?
Date:	9/2/2015 3:52:05 PM

I've been watching some of the financial commentators and no body seems to know what this means.  Some feel it is a long overdue market correction, others believe it is the Chinese economy.  Some feel it is jitters over the Fed hiking rates and the collapse of the oil market.  What it is, is an excellent time for bargains in the market.  I've been watching my individual stocks and while they are down a bit, they really haven't lost all that much.  People tend to panic and sell off, which is the worst thing you can do. 

As I understand it, labor number are up, but not quite as high as they were predicted.  Market is up a bit at the moment 

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Stock market signaling a recession?
Date:	9/2/2015 4:09:58 PM

The Fiscal Times piece was focused on stock market indicators as they relate to past recessions, hence the ? in the title.  It was an interesting read if you are so inclined.  

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	Stock market signaling a recession?
Date:	9/2/2015 5:59:33 PM

MM: do you really think Fed raising rate 1/4 of 1% is going to start a tailspin ?/ its been talked about for 9 months, so its already : assumed, discounted, irrelevant ; what youneed to worry about is our spiraling debt ; seems we spend 3X what we take in

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Stock market signaling a recession?
Date:	9/3/2015 8:17:13 AM

Good question and the short answer is I don't know for sure.  What I have read is that its not the amont of the hike that matters.  The markets respond today to what they think is going to happen down the road.  A rate hike sends the message to the market that the Fed is going to try to increase rates over time which over time will provide another, presumably safer alternative to equities.  Is the rate increase already baked in?  Maybe.  But there are still a lot of investors that will respond emotionally to the volatility and the possibility of a bear market, particularly the boomers that are getting closer to retirement or are retired.

On the debt side, I totally agree with you and am convinced it is a huge threat and has to be brought under control.  I just don't know if we have an electorate that understands this and is willing to accept the sacrifices, especially when they are told and stupidly believe that all we need to do is sock it to the 1 percenters and all will be well.  Economic illiteracy at its finest as the top 5% already pay the majority of taxes and unless you are going to tax wealth instead of income (which ain't gonna happen) the middle class is going to get hammered.  At this point my best guess is we will end up like Canada where they pay more each year in taxes than they spend on food, shelter, etc.  But hey, maybe they will give us "free" health care like they do in Canada where it takes six months to a year to get a hip replacement or bypass surgery.  That is unless you have the cash and can come to the U.S. ang get it in two days.....for now anyway.  Obamacare will probably take care of that eventually.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Stock market signaling a recession?
Date:	9/3/2015 11:40:10 AM

Maybe what really needs to be done is to reign in spending and stop giving billions to other countries, getting involved in wars that we can't afford, and funding programs that have no demonstrative advantages.  You know, I keep reading that this or that is "only" 1% of our GDP so it doesn't really matter, but all of those things add up.  That is one of the things that Carly Firorino is advocating that I like - zero based budgeting.  And one of the things that Trump has advocated is us getting a "quid pro quo" for the things we do.  We've got to stop acting like we are the great benefactors of the world.  We need to stop acting like every time we go into a conflict that we have an obligation to rebuild their country or in the case of Afghanistan, build it to what it never was.  Why continue to build new and more advanced (and much more costly) weapons systems, when they are not serving us in the conflicts we are engaging in. 

Was watching the news this morning and much was being made of the refugees from Syria in Poland and Hungary.  The Europeans are taking numbers of them in, but I doubt it is comparable to those who are seeking refuge. How long before the U.S. somehow starts seeing us as part of the solution? 

I saw an interesting author on TV the other morning.  She has written a book called "Rising Strong".  But the point she was making in her discussion was that how we as a nation are constantly giving into fear.  Politicians capitalize on those by feeding them.  They make a case for fear to support their ambitions, and people by into it without question.  And then they put forth some simplistic plan to resolve that fear, when the situation is far more complex and if it was simple to resolve, it would have already been done. 

In terms of new taxes, I don't think the 1% or 5% should be either pandered to, or targeted.  They need to come up with a tax structure where everyone pays their fair share.  And I don't think we have it. 

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Shemitah promises a recession. Take it to the bank
Date:	9/4/2015 8:26:00 AM (updated 9/4/2015 8:28:48 AM)

http://www.infowars.com/eerie-statistics-predict-coming-shemitah-market-collapse-only-8-trading-days-until-wipe-out-day/

And on another note, guess what is now in the PC Guide?

The term "American" is now considered offensive, at least according to the University of New Hampshire's "Bias-Free Language Guide."