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Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/19/2010 10:35:14 PM

First of all, Brown ran a nearly flawless campaign and Coakley ran an awful campaign - despite that in any ordinary year she would have still won.

Second, Obama once again showed his naivete and hubris by coming to Mass over the weekend. I really believe he thought he could pull this out simply by the force of his personality when it was obvious from internal polls on both sides and external polls that Brown was going to win - I would say he won't make that mistake again but I said that with the Olympics, and then I said that with Deeds in Virginia and now I am not going to say that with Coakley in Mass. He will continue on his narcissistic path because he spends all day reading his own press releases....er, um, I mean articles about him in the dinosaur government media.

Third, this is in fact a repudiation of the Obama/Reid/Pelosi troika regardless of what the spinners on the left say and are going to say over the coming weeks. Brown ran squarely against Obama's policies and not against Coakley per se (other than she would be another vote for Obama). The voters of Mass were told that if they did not vote for Coakley Obamacare was dead. They voted for Brown because they want it dead and amazingly, because a plurality of those polled in Mass recently said Obama was too liberal....

Fourth, it is the ultimate irony that Ted Kennedy's former seat may be the undoing of his signature, long-term legislative wet dream of universal government health care. God indeed has a sense of humor and my only hope is that Uncle Teddy can see this undoing.

Fifth, this may actually in the long run benefit Dems electorally but it will be worth it. They can now vote for Obamacare to appease their base and when it is defeated (if they don't resort to procedural shenanigans) they can blame Republicans while at the same time wiping the sweat off their brow and saying, "Whew, that was close". If they resort to shenanigans to jam Obamacare through it will be a disaster for them as a party.

Finally, it will be fun watching the finger pointing after this one on all sides. One thing you can say about Bush, he at least had the sense to call the 2006 results what they were, an old fashioned butt whooping. I doubt Obama has either the grace or the humility to do anything comparable. We are going to hear more bluster out of the WH while Dems in the House and Senate facing 2010 elections are going to be in near panic mode. They can't imagine having to work for a living again.

Name:	rude evin -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/19/2010 11:03:42 PM

Good write up, actually there was some pretty good polling on this ....especially given that it was a sp election, except for Zogby who flat out predicted a Coakely win.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/20/2010 8:12:36 AM

That one had me worried as well as Zogby is usually spot on. Rasmussen had it neck in neck and also underestimated Brown's strength. As a special election there is no doubt voter turnout is the key and that is notoriously difficult to project from polls.

A couple of interesting facts that highlight how amazing this victory is for the GOP. Mass was the only state to go for McGovern. Only 12% of the population are registered Republicans. Brown was down 30% in the polls prior to the Senate passage of Obamacare. If you want to see the change go to intrade.com. It is an amazing turn of events.

I listened to his remarks last night and he really hit several of my hot buttons. To paraphrase, we need to be using taxpayer money to kill terrorists, not pay for their lawyers. We need sensible reform of health care targeted to the problems and with market-based solutions, not a government takeover of 1/6th of the American economy, etc.

One thing I really don't like is Drudge has a "Will He Run for President?" banner this morning. We already have an obscure state senator - short term U.S. Senator in the WH and don't need another, even if he is a Republican.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/20/2010 8:14:45 AM

Just one comment --

I don't think you can fault Obama for traveling to Mass last weekend. Presidents have always done this when there was a tight race anywhere. He is, in fact, his party's leader and it would be shameful if he did not lend his support to his party's candidate.
If you listened to the interview with Kennedy's widow, she said that she thought the Democrats just assumed that the seat was theirs, and that was a major tactical error.

Otherwise, it appears that Brown ran a great campaign and won. Hopefully, he won't just become one of the Republican who just folds his arms and whines... He certainly isn't entrenched and it appears he is an independent thinker. Heaven knows we need some fresh thinking in Washington.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/20/2010 9:10:32 AM

The reason I don't agree with you on this Hound is that the internal polls showed Coakley down by 5 to 8 points going into the weekend. That is an insurmountable lead and I think Obama simply made a strategic mistake to come there at the last minute to try to overcome such a big lead. Maybe they didn't believe the internals and thought they could get out the vote but they miscalculated on both counts....one, many Democrats were determined in their support of Brown and two, I think that black voters have gone back to their more normal enthusiasm for white Democrat candidates which is nowhere near the energy they had for Obama.

Don't get me wrong, I am glad he made the mistake and I hope he continues to come out and support Dem candidates. Nothing generates more energy for the GOP than Mr. Obama. I do think he will find himself more in the camp of GW with candidates not inviting him or outright asking him to stay away. Especially after they see his performance at the Coakley rally. What an awful thing to take a campaign mistake (making fun of the Brown's truck) and nationalizing it! He really has a tin ear and gets very bad advice......

Name:	rude evin -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/20/2010 9:15:05 AM

Ditto fresh thinking Hound, but I have to say, if I was part of the brain trust for the Pres I'd insist on someone being fired for allowing the Pres to go with such a strong head wind against his policies and her terrible campaign. Three big losses now can be added to his resume..........politics is about image and impressions and policies and those have taken a major hit.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/20/2010 7:11:27 PM

Hound, you are right,“…Hopefully, he won't just become one of the Republican(sic) who just folds his arms and whines... He certainly isn't entrenched and it appears he is an independent thinker. Heaven knows we need some fresh thinking in Washington.”

The independent voters used this special election to adjust the tone inside the beltway. Examine the polls about how unhappy the PEOPLE feel about the direction in which America is going.

This isn’t a mandate for Republicans. This is a mandate to return the United States of American to its citizens… to wrest it away from concession, corruption, coercion, and political contempt.

Republicans beware! You broke into power in 1994 on a CONTRACT with America… on which you defaulted. You Republicans are not even slightly empowered by the thinking people of Massachusetts to engage in the politics of power against the will of the people.

Respect the citizens of this great nation.
Restore the system that rewards industry.
Do not take funds away from private citizens and industry to fuel government folly.
Do not empower the indigent.
Realize that charity suffers when prosperity suffers.
Restore sanctity of personal inalienable rights.
Restore personal responsibility for failure as well as success.

Provide for the common defense.
Stop confusing our allies.
Stop emboldening our enemies.
Promote confident and credible statesmanship and cease diplomatic groveling.

Both parties need a night in front of the fire reading the ORIGINAL Constitution of the United States of America. It seems that the independent voters of this great nation understand this document.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/20/2010 7:36:09 PM

I think when you put together the polls with Brown's win, I don't think Washington can ignore what people are saying. A smart person would look at the fact that the Republicans were voted out because people did not like the direction the country was headed; they elected Obama because they wanted change; but a year later people are still saying they don't like the direction the country is going in.
What I think this says is that we don't like the Republican Agenda, we don't like the Democratic Agenda and we think the agenda should be something else. It would not surprise me if not only a lot of Democrats lost their seats, but also a lot of Republicans. And I personally think that would be very healthy.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	You are onto something
Date:	1/20/2010 8:30:29 PM

What clouds this discussion is the use of Democrat and Republican as if that provides a meaningful description. It really doesn't because what we are really trying to grasp is the difference between statists like Obama/Reid/Pelosi and those opposed to statists like Scott Brown.

What is 100% clear is that Scott Brown ran on a platform of smaller federal government, restoring private sector job growth and a strong national defense. He is mostly a social moderate and part of his success was that social issues are very far from the minds of voters right now.

I have long argued that despite the prognostications from the left over 2006/2008, the country is still center right and based on the Mass results maybe more so than I thought. The point here is that for the last several years the government media and moderate Republicans have been telling us that the era of Reagan was over, that we just needed to be more like Dems, etc. Brown, Christie and McDonnell could indeed attract Reagan Democrats if they ran on the right platform.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	You are onto something
Date:	1/20/2010 10:40:54 PM

From MM, “What clouds this discussion is the use of Democrat and Republican as if that provides a meaningful description. It really doesn't because what we are really trying to grasp is the difference between statists like Obama/Reid/Pelosi and those opposed to statists like Scott Brown.”

If only we could stop believing that Republicans are “wingnuts” and Democrats are “socialists”. If only we would ask ourselves before we vote, “which of these most clearly represents my pain… my dreams… my values?” We would soon find that we vote for the man or woman whose plan most fits our goals for life.

In the past, we did. We got screwed. Stay the course.

Herds of donkeys and elephants obscure what matters most. We need to see our government acting on our behalf… no… on the behalf of our families. Such a concept is… well… independent.

Democrats don’t seem to be acting on our behalf of our families. Republicans promised… but then reneged. We want to believe in Scott Brown and Sarah Palin. More than half of the voters believed Barrack Obama.

Do you want to do the right thing? Vote independent… every time. Vote for your family. Vote for your community. Vote for your nation. Don vote for the olitical party.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	You are onto something
Date:	1/20/2010 10:42:24 PM

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	MARTINIIIII
Date:	1/21/2010 12:40:18 AM

I may have had an easier time voting for Brown than you. I actually wonder if you would have voted for him were you a MA voter? You are so far right that you must have an issue with his position on abortion from his own web site:

Abortion
While this decision should ultimately be made by the woman in consultation with her doctor, I believe we need to reduce the number of abortions in America. I believe government has the responsibility to regulate in this area and I support parental consent and notification requirements and I oppose partial birth abortion. I also believe there are people of good will on both sides of the issue and we ought to work together to support and promote adoption as an alternative to abortion.

The country may well be right of center but it is time that the crazy right wing nuts stopped defining the GOP as God's Only Party.

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	that is only
Date:	1/21/2010 7:29:37 AM

because you will not vote for a women. You have proven your bias many times.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	GFFFFFFFFF
Date:	1/21/2010 7:41:41 AM

I would have absolutely voted for Brown over Chokeley. I have often said, and I will repeat once again, that no candidate is ever perfect and that we often much choose the lesser of two evils. McCain wasn't my guy but I voted for him and supported him because he was significantly the lesser of two evils......and the first year of Obama has sure proved me oh so right.

Do I wish Scott Brown was pro-life? Of course. But i am an adult and will focus on where we agree in comparison to Chokeley where we agree on almost nothing. I have never been one of those purists that for example would vote for a 3rd party candidate with no hope of winning because I am angry at the GOP for a candidate. The only exception was maybe the NY 23rd where Hoffman actually had a better chance of winning than Dede the RINO.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	You are onto something
Date:	1/21/2010 7:45:21 AM

I understand your desire to "vote independent every time" but the fact remains that we have a 2-party system and it is rare (at least for me in Georgia and in national elections) to ever be presented with the ideal candidate that is 3rd party and has even a hope of winning. Voting for a 3rd party candidate out of spite usually only gives you the exact opposite of what you want. Better half a loaf with an imperfect GOP candidate than nothing at all with what the Dems usually send our way......

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Can't Agree with that
Date:	1/21/2010 9:48:45 AM

I don't think the answer is a "half a loaf" GOP candidate. That makes no sense to me at all.
And no, I don't buy into Sarah Palin, either.

The point is this, people aren't buying into a "conservative" agenda any more than they are buying into a "liberal" agenda. People want a candidate that is based in common sense, regardless of the party or label. And right now, that means someone who understands that people want jobs and a stable economy, not neceesarily a hat trick.

I think people will be voting more independently in the future. Based on the candidate, not the party or the label.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Can't Agree with that
Date:	1/21/2010 10:31:27 AM

Well we can agree to disagree but I think if you look at Scott Brown's campaign and watch his speeches he ran as a fiscal conservative and the voters, especially Independents and Reagan Democrats went for him in droves. You can claim it was the messenger but I will counter it was the message. He ran against the liberal agenda of Obama/Reid/Pelosi and he won on that platform. He won espousing conservative principals and there is no way you can spin it any other way.

Name:	Council Roc Doc -	Reply
Subject:	Reflections on Brown Win
Date:	1/21/2010 12:01:04 PM

Heah,Heah

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