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| Name: |
Jim Dandy
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| Subject: |
The Obama Economy
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Date:
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3/3/2009 11:14:58 AM
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From todays journal - pretty good recap of what's happening.......
*****************
As 2009 opened, three weeks before Barack Obama took office, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9034 on January 2, its highest level since the autumn panic. Yesterday the Dow fell another 4.24% to 6763, for an overall decline of 25% in two months and to its lowest level since 1997. The dismaying message here is that President Obama's policies have become part of the economy's problem.
Americans have welcomed the Obama era in the same spirit of hope the President campaigned on. But after five weeks in office, it's become clear that Mr. Obama's policies are slowing, if not stopping, what would otherwise be the normal process of economic recovery. From punishing business to squandering scarce national public resources, Team Obama is creating more uncertainty and less confidence -- and thus a longer period of recession or subpar growth.
The Democrats who now run Washington don't want to hear this, because they benefit from blaming all bad economic news on President Bush. And Mr. Obama has inherited an unusual recession deepened by credit problems, both of which will take time to climb out of. But it's also true that the economy has fallen far enough, and long enough, that much of the excess that led to recession is being worked off. Already 15 months old, the current recession will soon match the average length -- and average job loss -- of the last three postwar downturns. What goes down will come up -- unless destructive policies interfere with the sources of potential recovery.
And those sources have been forming for some time. The price of oil and other commodities have fallen by two-thirds since their 2008 summer peak, which has the effect of a major tax cut. The world is awash in liquidity, thanks to monetary ease by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Monetary policy operates with a lag, but last year's easing will eventually stir economic activity.
Housing prices have fallen 27% from their Case-Shiller peak, or some two-thirds of the way back to their historical trend. While still high, credit spreads are far from their peaks during the panic, and corporate borrowers are again able to tap the credit markets. As equities were signaling with their late 2008 rally and January top, growth should under normal circumstances begin to appear in the second half of this year.
So what has happened in the last two months? The economy has received no great new outside shock. Exchange rates and other prices have been stable, and there are no security crises of note. The reality of a sharp recession has been known and built into stock prices since last year's fourth quarter.
What is new is the unveiling of Mr. Obama's agenda and his approach to governance. Every new President has a finite stock of capital -- financial and political -- to deploy, and amid recession Mr. Obama has more than most. But one negative revelation has been the way he has chosen to spend his scarce resources on income transfers rather than growth promotion. Most of his "stimulus" spending was devoted to social programs, rather than public works, and nearly all of the tax cuts were devoted to income maintenance rather than to improving incentives to work or invest.
His Treasury has been making a similar mistake with its financial bailout plans. The banking system needs to work through its losses, and one necessary use of public capital is to assist in burning down those bad assets as fast as possible. Yet most of Team Obama's ministrations so far have gone toward triage and life support, rather than repair and recovery.
AIG yesterday received its fourth "rescue," including $70 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Program cash, without any clear business direction. Citigroup's restructuring last week added not a dollar of new capital, and also no clear direction. Perhaps the imminent Treasury "stress tests" will clear the decks, but until they do the banks are all living in fear of becoming the next AIG. All of this squanders public money that could better go toward burning down bank debt.
The market has notably plunged since Mr. Obama introduced his budget last week, and that should be no surprise. The document was a declaration of hostility toward capitalists across the economy. Health-care stocks have dived on fears of new government mandates and price controls. Private lenders to students have been told they're no longer wanted. Anyone who uses carbon energy has been warned to expect a huge tax increase from cap and trade. And every risk-taker and investor now knows that another tax increase will slam the economy in 2011, unless Mr. Obama lets Speaker Nancy Pelosi impose one even earlier.
Meanwhile, Congress demands more bank lending even as it assails lenders and threatens to let judges rewrite mortgage contracts. The powers in Congress -- unrebuked by Mr. Obama -- are ridiculing and punishing the very capitalists who are essential to a sustainable recovery. The result has been a capital strike, and the return of the fear from last year that we could face a far deeper downturn. This is no way to nurture a wounded economy back to health.
Listening to Mr. Obama and his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, on the weekend, we couldn't help but wonder if they appreciate any of this. They seem preoccupied with going to the barricades against Republicans who wield little power, or picking a fight with Rush Limbaugh, as if this is the kind of economic leadership Americans want.
Perhaps they're reading the polls and figure they have two or three years before voters stop blaming Republicans and Mr. Bush for the economy. Even if that's right in the long run, in the meantime their assault on business and investors is delaying a recovery and ensuring that the expansion will be weaker than it should be when it finally does arrive.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
excellent recap
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3/3/2009 11:52:40 AM
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Now if Obama and team would read it and realize they have become the problem. But they are in denial and can't believe their vision has not been embraced. Instead they keep fighting to change what made our country great.
God save us from this nightmare.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
One thing I do not get
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Date:
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3/3/2009 12:08:54 PM
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is why the american people let him continue to get away with blaming it on Bush and that Obama inherited the recession. Yes he did, just like Reagan inherited Carters mess, just like Bush inherited the tech collapse and recession that resulted at the end of Clintons term. Bush also did not ask for 9/11 that came while we were in recession. But both Reagan and Bush put policies in place that stimulated the economy and created jobs.
The liberal dems can say he gave too many tax cuts to business and "the evil rich" ... but the fact is that it worked in both cases and created jobs and the country moving forward. Isn't that what Obama and the democrats want? Don't they want to help people that need jobs? Or do they only want to help them if they can create jobs the way they think it should be done.
At what point do they look in the mirror and say, our way to stimulate the economy and create jobs does not work. But the republican way through tax cuts and business incentives does work and puts people to work !!!!!!!!!!!!
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 12:33:46 PM
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I think that both of you are missing the point. It hardly matters who caused the mess that we are in -- and that is part of the problem. Everyone is spending time pointing fingers saying this won't work and that won't work, when in fact, we better start hoping that something works.
We are in an entirely new situation. This isn't the recessions of the past, it isn't even the depression of the past. This is the new reality. I heard someone on the news today say that they thought that part of the problem is that people don't realize that their lives are fundamentally changed and there is no going back. People are in mourning about their old life and how they spent and invested. They can't believe it's really over, but it is.
So instead of pointless discussions about who is at fault, it would be more productive to figure out where to put your money now to preserve your capital. I'm not defending Obama because I think the Democratic Congress has it's head up it's proverbial _ss. And I think Obama thinking that he will half the deficet in his administration is bull. No matter whose buget it is, I think Obama should be sending back the budget and make them take out the pork. It's said that he is picking his battles for the harder battles that are coming, but I think there is no place like the present to start.
And the Republicans are wasting their time trying to decide if Michael Steele or Rush Limbaugh is running the Republican party. Give me a break. Limbaugh is an entertainer, and nothing more.
They better start trying to figure out how they can pull their party together. It's a pretty sad state of affairs if the best they can come up with is Rush Limbaugh.
What you are seeing is the end of American life as we have known it. Arguing who is at fault is like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic and about as productive.
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| Name: |
MrHodja
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 1:15:16 PM
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I find it particularly comical that a liberal would make a comment about an entertainer trying to influence policy. Gimme a break.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 1:25:42 PM
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The only party that keeps pointing fingers is the democrats. They will not admit their policies do not and will not work, and they refuse to listen or work with republicans. They have a we won mentality and will do whatever we want. But as they fail and their policies do not work and continue to make the mess worse ... that is when they want to blame someone else.
I disagree that our lives have to be changed forever ... I am sure that is what Obama wants and the liberals want ... lets have a society of making everyone the same. That will destroy the american dream. What was great about this country is the sky was the limit ... now Obama and the liberals want to put a limit to that sky and then take it away to give to others that did not work as hard to earn it. So they penalize success and that will change this country and how we live forever.
Our only hope is the american people wake up and see what is happening and change congress in the next election less than 2 years away. That will do one of two things, create more fighting and nothing gets done, which would be a good thing. Or it forces Obama to listen and work with congress on "change" that will work.
In my heart I do not believe he wants things to improve right away. That way he change change our country to his way of thinking with little resistence since he has the dems to approve everything .... it will be much harder to undo the mess he creates unless there is a landslide to the republicans.
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| Name: |
Jim Dandy
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 1:44:14 PM
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In my view, government intervention in the market (housing and monetary) is largly the cause of our current predicament. The administrations view is that government is the only solution. The anti-business proposals on the table are clearly negatively impacting business and consumer confidence and stand to further exacerbate this mess. The proof is in the stock market performance the past 60 days.
The "leadership" being exhibited fails to give credence to proven actions which can stabilize our economic engine and propel us out of this recession. Hope just won't do it.
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| Name: |
Summer Lover
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 4:38:15 PM
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Both parties have a history of pointing fingers - right now the Dems are pointing the middle one at Repubs. I am for small government intervention - a social liberal and fiscal conservative - if what I do has no effect to the detriment of others - leave me alone. As far as Obama - he was clear in what his stated goals were, he wants this to be a Socialist country, and is doing his best to make it happen. Even though I voted for McCain (more against Obama), WE voted him in, and my biggest fear is not four years of a Socialist agenda, it is the losses we will all incur in the Supreme Court.
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| Name: |
cobra
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 5:46:26 PM
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But Obama also said that it will take time for the mistakes of the past to work their way through the system and that the spectacular losses happening now are a "natural reaction" to those mistakes.
I wonder what mistakes he is referring to ? Viet Nam ? World War 2 ? Iraq ?
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| Name: |
Summer Lover
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 6:32:09 PM
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Previous mistakes would be anything prior to the time that the First Lady became proud of our country - so anything that happened before 11/4/08.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 7:33:15 PM
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Well the Dems may be pointing fingers, but the Republicans are folding arms. but this is my point -- that it's way past the time for blame.
And WW -- I'm sorry to disagree with you, but I think fundamental changes have happened and we won't be going back.
I believe the government needs to stop bailing and tarping and let things go the way they will. Let the market correct itself.
It's going to be painful, but I think it's the only thing that will work. All this other business about tax cuts and tax increases is just surface noise.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 7:34:47 PM
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Well, I guess if we can have an actor making policy, we can have a nitwit radio entertainer trying to influence it. What do they call it -- "Ditto heads"?
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 7:42:05 PM
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It is ok to disagree ... i like a healthy debate. We should enjoy that freedom while we still have it. I am sure congress will soon be passing a law that you can not disagree with the way Obama is running the country.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
I just saw
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Date:
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3/3/2009 7:50:01 PM
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that auto sales are at the lowest level since 1981. Now why is that? 93% of the population is still working. It used to be thought that full employment was when unemployment was at 5% and below 5% was inflationary (which it is). Interest rates are very low, but no one is buying. The reason is because people don't trust the direction Obama is taking us that things will not get worse. I have to agree. All he does is talk doom and gloom, talks about more taxes and more government spending. How can that give anyone the confidence to go out and commit to a large purchase. And if people will not spend things will not improve and it will drive the economy lower. That is what obama is missing. He is taking from those that still have money to give to others, while nothing is improving and in fact getting worse and less and less people have money to spend.
Really ... this is not rocket science. But the liberals will not listen and they want to stick to their destructive agenda.
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| Name: |
alahusker
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 8:13:57 PM
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Must admit, "Hound" raises a valid point... It's not productive to look back and place blame, best to look forward. However, if one looks forward and sees current policies on a path leading the Nation over a social/economic cliff, should he/she just have faith in hope and change? Not me.. I wish President Obama success, not failure. Success that comes from the recognition that his path to socialism is a failed one that has never has worked in modern history..
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| Name: |
cobra
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| Subject: |
With all due Respect
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Date:
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3/3/2009 9:42:13 PM
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I think Hound is right on the money on this one. Forget what has happened and throwing the blame. Lets see how we can solve the problem and send the message to Washington. I tuned in today and listened to Rush . He is running this Obama thing in the ground. He is promoting himself. He said all the same things when Clinton was in office. How would you like to be elected president and tune in a listen to RL. Why is he trying to turn the country against BO ? Lets face it. BO is president.I voted for the other man. My man lost so deal with it.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
OK Din.....
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3/4/2009 8:40:50 AM
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Since our man lost, let's just shut up and bury our head in the sand and pretend all is well. Some of you folks amaze me. Yeah, yeah, yeah...... it's all about Rush. Apparently he has "Struck a Nerve" with some of you. I am aware he is an "entertainer" seeking ratings however, that alone does not discredit his message. There is a reason his show garners the ratings and advertisers. Why is it that Air America and Franken could not do the same? I'll give you a hint.... most of Franken's audience is watching Oprah on the Dish and could not care less about the state of our nation. Can't afford health insurance but, Sattelite TV is a must. Sorry for the rant, I'm just disgusted with the way things are going.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
The Obama Economy
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Date:
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3/4/2009 9:50:02 AM
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After reading this entire thread it is obvious about one thing. Liberals (Hound being the current example) are uniformly pessimistic which is why survey after survey show that conservatives are happier, more optimistic and give more to charity than liberals. It is a proven fact. Of course things have not changed forever. What a lack of understanding of history. Why is it that we always think we live in different times than ever before?!?!? Read a book and you will find we have been here many times and have recovered an equal number. We have had numerous tax and spend presidents like the Messiah and have returned to our senses and we will do so again, the question being how much pain will the current idiots in congress and the white house will inflict on America before we toss their sorry butts out of office. Nothing new with the gloom and doomers, they are always wrong.
As for the Rush Limbaugh spectacle, I assume Hound has probably never listened to him or only for a short time. As he says, you have to listen for 6 weeks to understand his show. He will tell you first and foremost he is a conservative entertainer and commentator. Nothing more and nothing less. He has never been elected to anything and will never run for anything. He doesn't run the Republican party and has no desire to. THE POINT IS THAT OBAMA HIMSELF RAISED RUSH'S PROFILE AND IN THE PROCESS DIMINISHED THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENT. The mainstream media is simply playing the part of useful idiots that they are. By the way, I use caps to emphasize my point, not to shout.
Finally, as for the finger pointing comment. There are two important reasons to "point fingers" so to speak. One is to identify exactly what happened so we can correct the problem and hopefully not repeat our mistakes of the past. The second is to hold those elected officials responsible for their actions. Both have merit. The problem is that partisans (be they Dem or Republican) don't want their party to be held accountable and there are usually reasons why one party or the other pursued damaging policies. It is inarguable that the mess we are in today was caused by the excesses of government and its intervention and distortions of the marketplace. The record clearly shows that this was caused primarily by Democrats.
Finally, the prescriptions being tried by Obama and congress have been tried before and failed miserably. They will fail again and until the misery index gets so high that we throw Dems out of control.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
By the way
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:13:21 AM
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I agree with Rush in that if Obama plans to pursue his ruinous approach to our current problems then I too hope he fails. To do otherwise would mean ejecting the conservative principals that I believe to my core. If he eventually sees the light and pursues a more rational approach then I (and Rush I am sure) would hope all the best for him. Do I think he will come to his senses? Maybe, but I seriously doubt Reid or Pelosi have the intellect or integrity to change their ways so putting them on the sidelines is our only hope. So don't ask any conservative to wish a president pursuing already tried and miserably failed policies to wish he succeeds. His success will be our ruin.
Finally for Hound and the comment about ditto heads. Once again, you don't understand the meaning or genesis of the term. Earlier in his career people would call his show all the time and say "Finally someone is on the radio talking about the conservative principals that I believe". It got so bad that Rush asked them to shorten by saying dittos. Dittos simply means I agree with your positions without taking up valuable air time telling him so. What you and others that don't listen to the show don't understand is that his audience is probably the most well informed on the planet. You see, they don't believe what they believe because he says it. He simply says what they believe about conservative principals in an entertaining way.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
By the way
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:22:39 AM
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
By the way
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:22:39 AM
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
By the way
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:22:39 AM
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
By the way
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:22:39 AM
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
By the way
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:22:39 AM
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
Woops...
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:29:11 AM
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My finger got caught on the "enter" tab. I was going to say that MM is correct. If you look at the demographics of Rushs' audience you will find they are head and shoulders above the average. Reason being, his listeners are actually concerned about the state of our nation whereas, the masses only care about their next government check while watching the Jerry Springer Show. An over-generalization, probably but, oh well never mind. Other than Hound, I'm preaching to the choir.
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| Name: |
lakngulf
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| Subject: |
The Obama Economy
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:42:38 AM
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"The record clearly shows that this was caused primarily by Democrats."
MM, can you list some facts (what did Barney Frank do wrong? or was Chris Todd's mortgage illegal or what are exact details that lead to deregulation or did Clinton push for mortgages to folks who could not afford them, etc) to support your statement above? Was this a Democrat-fed/led problem? I tend to believe the statement but I cannot defend it with facts, AND I am willing to point figures at Republicans, Democrats, Wall Street, Main Street, etc.
We have had hard times before; we have come out of them. We are, however, in a new period of "White Collar Welfare", of Democratic spending on top of Republican spending (and a loss of everyone's principles), of a debt that I cannot comprehend, a debt fed by Republicans and Democrats alike.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Woops...
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Date:
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3/4/2009 12:04:56 PM
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You know, I just started to post something ugly, but decided against it. Don't want other people here accusing me of being unhappy.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
Do it Hound...
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Date:
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3/4/2009 12:23:59 PM
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You can't hurt my feelings.
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| Name: |
alahusker
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| Subject: |
Do it Hound...
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Date:
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3/4/2009 5:41:59 PM
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we are making it too complicated.. If you about to see your car driving over a cliff, would you put on the brakes??
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Now, Now
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Date:
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3/4/2009 6:11:59 PM
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I'd never post something to try to hurt anyone's feelings.
I might post something to bait a few people or to stir the pot a bit and stimulate discussion, but never to hurt anyone.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Only if I was sure
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Date:
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3/4/2009 6:14:06 PM
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that I couldn't make it by flying to the other side. LOL.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Of course I can
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Date:
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3/4/2009 10:45:20 PM
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I've done it in detail in earlier posts but I will summarize. The current economic problem was caused by the COmmunity Reinvestment Act (CRA) and Fannie/Freddie distorting the credit markets. CRA was put on steroids by Clinton, groups like ACORN sued to force banks to lend money to people who were not credit worthy. During the Bush administration they tried several times, including Republicans in congress, to correct the problems but people like Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and others blocked every attempt. The record is clear, in
I could go into great and gory detail but I will recommend a national review piece that provides a good summary. I know its a conservative publication but there's nothing in the piece that isn't true. I'll post it later when I have time to find it as its been a while. I am honestly surprised that anyone even needs to hear this again. Even a casual observer that gets their news from something other than the mainstream media knows this is true.
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| Name: |
lakngulf
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| Subject: |
Of course I can
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Date:
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3/5/2009 6:36:32 AM
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But you will find just as many reports/articles/bills where they argue the Repubs are to blame, that they took away the deregulations. You will find Repubs in Congress, and elsewhere, who "Franked this" or "Dodded that". Who to believe? I tend to believe Fox more than mainstream or others, but they are all biased. Who to believe? That is the question in the finger pointing.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Lets see them
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Date:
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3/5/2009 8:52:26 AM
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I am a news junkie and I can tell you the best anyone can come up with is Republican enablers. I can show you articles in all kinds of publications, I can show you video of congressional hearings where the Bush administration and Republicans in congress warned of the impending doom and the blocks by members like Frank, Dodd, Waters, et al, I can show you the excesses of Fannie and Freddie under people like Raines and I can show you in the record where the legislation was created and by whom.
I am sorry but this is a crisis created by Democrats and you can grasp at whatever straws you want to try to deflect the blame but it is simply not possible. If you want to cite specific allegations I will gladly go toe to toe with you on them and in the end you will concede defeat. This is not an equal opportunity problem no matter how much you want it to be so. The fact is Democrats forced and enabled lenders to lend money to their natural constituency, bragged about it and used it as campaign propaganda and now the chickens have come home to roost.
Of course if you get your news from the mainstream media you won't hear any of this because they are overwhelmingly Democrats (also a proven fact).
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Sorry, need to read it all
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3/5/2009 9:45:46 AM
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I needed to read your entire post. I was in a hurry and didn't see you were looking for details to show others. I am trying to figure the easiest way to find the NRO post. It was very well researched and contained lots of facts, dates, etc. You can go on youtube and search for Fannie and Freddie hearings Barney Frank and you should be able to find where he is defending the program and saying we shouldn't worry about it. I'll try to find the NRO piece.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Here's a start
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Date:
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3/5/2009 9:58:25 AM
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Very good summary piece on what happened. Not assigning blame to one party or the other but puts the problem squarely in the hands of CRA/Fannie/Freddie. This is an important first step because then you look to the creators and defenders of these practices in Congress and there is plenty of evidence it was overwhelmingly Democrats catering to their constituency.
The piece is called "How Did We Get into This Financial Mess?" by Lawrence H. White. Yes, Hound it is from the Cato Institute but before dismissing it because of where it was published why not actually read it and see if it doesn't make perfect sense because it does. That is what is called a preemptive strike. :-)
URL: http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9788
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