Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 9:07:48 AM

Apprently the go to place for virus estimates is the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).  They are apparently the group that provided estimates of between 120K and 240K deaths.  They also track hospital beds, ICU and ventilator needs.  In their latest projection the numbers for all have gone way down which means the social distancing and other measures are being effective.  They are still projecting shortages of ICU beds and ventilators but nowhere near as many as before.  And of course with issues like these, there are still a pretty wide range in their estimates and they don't take into account geographic variability so those places hardest hit (NY, NJ, MI, etc.) will see the most shortages.  And they are predicting the peak mortality at around 3,000 in mid-April and then we start down the other side of the bell curve.  Let's hope it is as steep on the downward side as it was on the upswing.  Light at the end of the tunnel, hopefully.

Website if you are interested.

http://www.healthdata.org/

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 10:27:15 AM

I saw this article too.  Of course, all modeling data is only as good as the data that does into it.  I keep reading that far more people have the virus than are being reported - they are either asymptomatic, or have a such a mild case that they never get reported.   

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 10:45:46 AM

I believe that to be the case and that is actually a very good thing.  It does two things.  First, it moves us closer to herd immunity.  Once around 50% of the population has been exposed a virus tends to die out as there are no receptive hosts to infect.  Second, it gets us a much better idea of the true mortality rate.  I believe even the last numbers of around .6% are going to end being on the high end.  It will likely still be higher than the flu because of the higher mortality rates with the elderly and people with underlying issues.  But it will end up being closer to the flu than any of the models are projecting.

Name:	PTClakefan -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 11:45:31 AM

I am starting to become optomistic that we may see the worst of this malady here in the next week or two.  I just read that the mortality rate here in the U.S. is currently running about .3 percent, which is higher than most annual flu viruses but much less than the 2-5 percent that some experts were predicting.  Hopefully, some of the experimental treatments will prove successful and drive the mortality rate even lower, at least until a vaccine can be developed.  I am not sure how much more social distancing I can stomach!

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 12:24:56 PM

If they are stating a 0.3% mortality rate now I am willing to bet that when this is over the rate will end up the same as the flu.  The biggest unknown, as with the flu, is that you have to estimate the total number of cases.  Most people who get it are never tested.  They stay home, feel like crap for a week and then go back to their normal activities.  No doctor, no test and no hsopitalization.  With the Wuhan virus I am betting we will have many more tests than the flu and so it will be better data.  We'll know in a year or so.  And if they find an effective and readily available treatment regime even if it comes back in the fall we will not have to shut down the economy.

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 12:53:38 PM

sure this is news DEMS hate to hear--"never let a cirisi go unwasted "

Name:	PTClakefan -	Reply
Subject:	Oops, Got My Math Wrong
Date:	4/6/2020 3:47:34 PM

Unfortunately the mortality rate for Covid-19 in the U.S is just under 3%, not .3%.  @350,000 confirmed cases  and just over 10,000 dead.  Sorry about the earlier post, but math was never my strong suit.  

Name:	Lifer -	Reply
Subject:	Oops, Got My Math Wrong
Date:	4/6/2020 4:55:17 PM

There is a big difference between dying WITH the disease than dying FROM the disease.  Currently in many cases the reports are not making that distinction.  

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 4:56:57 PM

I read that we may be hitting the peak. Yet, the projection is for 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. I don't understand the large discrepancy.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Your Math is Correct but Number is Still Wrong
Date:	4/6/2020 4:57:27 PM

The way the mortality rate for the flu is calculated is you divide the number of deaths from the flu by the TOTAL number of cases.  I put total in caps because that is the important number, not confirmed cases.  The vast majority of flu cases each year are never reported, they never go to the hospital and they are certainly not tested.  They get sick, are miserable for a week and then get better.  So they have to estimate the total number of cases which is why there is such a big range on the CDC website for the flu.  The mortality rate for the flu in this season was estimated to be around 0.1%.

The last I saw was they were projecting a mortality of 0.6% for the Wuhan virus.  Again, that is not based on confirmed cases, it is based on some estimate of the total number of cases.  Where that estimate came from I do not know.  But my belief is that the virus has been here for some time, maybe as long as the flu season.  We didn't recognize it until the China could no longer lie about it and then we began testing and counting numbers.  But the early numbers using only confirmed cases and comparing to the flu were flat out wrong.

As a mental exercise when this is over I am going to try to do a similar daily count for the flu, including hospitalizations and deaths.  What I hope comes out of that is that this virus peaked a little later and had a little higher mortality than the ordinary flu.  Won't know until we see what the bell curve looks like.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 5:09:17 PM

Goofy, they've changed the predictions downward.  And the peak is not supposed to happen for another 9 or 10 days.  The latest guesstimate was peaking at around 3,000 deaths per day.  I think a lot of this is interpolating what is happening in NY/NJ and assuming that other large metropolitan areas will see similar numbers.  I don't think that will be the case for two reasons: 1) nowhere do so many people in such a small area rely so heavily on public transportation; and 2) NYC/NJ did not institute measures until they were well into it.  Other cities have taken measures before they were hit hard and so my thinking is they will not be as bad as NY/NJ...hopefully.  But either way, the 240K number is out the window and has been replaced by a much smaller projection.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Oops, Got My Math Wrong
Date:	4/6/2020 5:10:57 PM

No doubt this is happening.  But my guess is that people were dying from this long before we were testing for it.  But it does seem that someone who has COVID antibodies but dies from a heart attack or cancer or whatever should not be counted.....but they are.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 5:49:27 PM

It's easy to talk about these numbers untill it hits your loved one.  When they are laying in intensive care, you won't care if the disease is trending downward.  

Let's not forget we are talking about human being lives, not just gross statistics.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Some positive Wuhan virus news
Date:	4/6/2020 6:03:11 PM

You may care -  it may mean the loss of 1 vs everyone in your house.  While 1 does suck, 4-5 or more is unthinkable.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Tell us something we don't know
Date:	4/7/2020 8:12:16 AM

Of course it is how lives are impacted that is most important.  Duh!  But that doesn't mean we should ignore the numbers and statistics because guess what....they tell us not only about the lives already impacted but give us some insight into how many others will suffer from this and when we are safe to relax the economy crushing restrictions....which also are changing lives. 

So I reject your proposition that considering the numbers somehow diminishes concern for those impacted by the Wuhan virus.  Some of us can actually do both and are doing both.  

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Tell us something we don't know
Date:	4/7/2020 9:00:49 AM

I have no problem with the numbers and the forecasts.  All I am saying is to not forget that we've talking about human lives.  I didn't mean to criticize, just to humanize it a bit.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Tell us something we don't know
Date:	4/7/2020 9:43:36 AM

Gotcha.....just came across as accusing us of focusing on the numbers at the expense of the human toll......definitely not the case.