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Name:	Kizma Anuice -	Reply
Subject:	Home Prices
Date:	4/2/2009 7:47:42 AM

I read the following this morning and was wondering if it applies to Lake Martin, as I have siblings who are considering early purchase of retirement homes:

House prices nationwide have now fallen about 30% from their 2006 peak. At these levels the contrarian, inevitably, starts to wonder if they have fallen far enough.
Certainly there are great deals out there. It is a buyer's market. The aggressive and opportunistic can probably find the worthwhile bargains.

But for the market overall the picture isn't as hopeful as you'd like.

Even today, prices overall have only reverted to levels seen in late 2003. Yet by that stage the bubble was already well inflated. You would expect a crash of this scale to retrace its steps much further. To find pre-bubble prices you have to go back to about 2000 – when values overall were about a third lower than they are today.

Name:	roswellric -	Reply
Subject:	Home Prices
Date:	4/2/2009 10:58:02 AM

From a macro viewpoint you have a couple of things going on in the housing market. Home prices have had a historical relationship to household incomes and without boring you with the gory details this relationship of household income to shelter cost got out of whack by about 25%. So the expected decline back to normal would be about 25%. But you have the oversupply factor. That's the local wildcard and you will have to determine the effect of that because it's location specific. Bottom line? Unless you think we are headed for a depression this is one of the best times to buy a principal residence. There can be a difference between a second vacation home and a retirement home but the fundamentals are stronger in my opinion for the retirement home sector than vacation. Of course they can be both in the right area and circumstance. If you want a bargain in vacation homes look for a relatively inelastic supply situation - bigger price swings in good and bad markets - like Lake Martin and buy on the dip. Having said all that do your homework and consult professionals before making any decisions.

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	Home Prices
Date:	4/2/2009 12:47:17 PM

I am going to run the numbers for 2009 so far in a later post on my blog, but my research for the 2008 summary showed me that in 08 prices dropped back about 8% or so from 2006 and 2007, but they are still above 2005.

URL: Lake Martin Real Estate Sales - 2008 Year in Review

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