Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	The Republican Dilemma
Date:	3/28/2023 2:35:54 PM

I read an interesting article by David Leonhardt about the dilemma facing the Republicans as they seek to cut Federal spending. The major areas that they will not cut are Social Security, Medicare, Veteran Benefits, and Military. They can’t cut interest on the debt. These items represent 2/3 of the spending.

So, that leaves them cutting benefits that benefit the lower and middle class such as Medicaid, Obamacare, and Food Stamps.

These cuts are a problem for the New Republican Party. With the shift in Republican demographics, these programs now benefit their base more than they do Democrats.

“As The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein recently wrote, “The escalating confrontation between the parties over the federal budget rests on a fundamental paradox: The Republican majority in the House of Representatives is now more likely than Democrats to represent districts filled with older and lower-income voters who rely on the social programs that the G.O.P. wants to cut.”

Almost 70 percent of House Republicans represent districts where the median income is lower than the national median, according to researchers at the University of Southern California. By contrast, about 60 percent of House Democrats represent districts more affluent than the median.“

It will be interesting to watch how McCarthy and the Freedon Caucus deliver on their promise to reduce spending and also avoid raising taxes on their other base...the wealthy.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	The Republican Dilemma
Date:	3/28/2023 2:47:25 PM

So the GOP has the rich and the middle class as their "base", which I guess leaves the Democrats with the poor as their base.  Interesting take....mostly wrong, but interesting.  Yes, when almost 70% of your budget is consumed by entitlement programs, cutting the size and scope of the Federal gov't is a bit of a challenge.  I have been making this point for 20 years.  I fully expect the GOP to take advantage of the economically absurd baseline budgeting gimmick to throw a bone to the deficit hawks. 

Something I have also said for the last 20 years is that Democrats are driving us off a fiscal cliff at 100 mph and Republicans are only doing 30.....we'll get to the edge of the cliff either way, just a lot sooner with Democrats.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	The Republican Dilemma
Date:	3/28/2023 2:54:51 PM (updated 3/28/2023 2:56:11 PM)

Maybe they can just start with FBI, CIA, IRS, DOJ  and many of the other out of control government agencies, probably not going to make much of a dent in the budget - but you have to start somewhere.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	The Republican Dilemma
Date:	3/28/2023 3:01:47 PM

"Interesting take....mostly wrong, but interesting."  What do you find "mostly wrong"?

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	The Republican Dilemma
Date:	3/28/2023 6:44:52 PM

There is no doubt that unpopular and difficult cuts will have to be made.  But first, the sweeping spending that Biden has been engaged needs to stop. Given the situation, I don't see big Defense cuts.  I don't see us cutting foreign aid, given China's outrach to what you to be American strongholds. 

I still believe that SSDI is prime for review and cuts.  Way too many people collecting disability that should be working at something.  And once you get SSDI, it opens up a lot of other entitlements - like subsidized housing, food assistance, Medicaid, etc.  And if you apply for SSDI, you may be rejected twice, but on the 3rd time you will be approved.  So says a woman friend that was a lawyer in the benefits section of Society Security.  

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Forum challenged again
Date:	3/28/2023 7:38:17 PM

You responded to Phil about my post.  Where do I start about how wrong that take is.  It definitely follows the leftist mantra that everyone fits into a box.  First of all, the GOP can hardly call the wealthy its base.  Both Democrats and Republicans have wealthy supporters.  Democrats clearly own the billionaires...at least the tech ones, CEO's and so on.  Republicans have theirs as well but hardly the same number or notoriety.  And the article itself undermines that notion with the stat about Dem districts being above the median income.  Second, I take serious exception that the "new" Republican base includes all the people on food stamps, Medicaid, etc.  Indeed Trump made inroads with the working class but very little with the working poor and almost none with the underclass.  They are still firmly planted on the Dem party plantation because they clearly understand that taking a half free loaf from the GOP is far worse than a full free loaf with Dems.  Third, that the GOP is more likely to represent districts with more elderly and lower income people is a statement without historical foundation.  Even if you accept those numbers they didn't claim it was some sort of shift rather than what it has been for some time. 

The fact is, regardless of what it says in this article,  the voters gave control of the House to the GOP based on what they said they would do and with some notable exceptions (i.e., the minority vote), people tend not to vote against their own interests.  That the GOP promised to cut gov't spending and were elected on this platform is enough to tell you this take is nonsense....or wishful thinking....likely a combination of the two.