Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	LA Study-virus more widespread and less deadly
Date:	4/21/2020 11:37:26 AM

As I predicted someone has finally done a study of the actual number of people that have the virus antibodies and it seems that the actual mortality of the Wuhan virus is almost the same as the ordinary flu.  Still based on prelim data and they need to confirm the testing results to make sure they are accurate but it does indeed look like the confirmed cases is between 50 and 80 times too low. 

What this means is that it has been around for much longer and is more widespread in the population (i.e., many people get it and are either asympomatic or symptoms are mild enough to not require a visit to the doctor, much less hospitalization).  Remember, between 35 and 60 million Americans get the flu every year with 300,000 to 400,000 requiring hospitalization and 15,000 to 35,000 dying.  At the end of the day this may turn out to be a worse than normal flu season and not the crisis that led to the crushing of the economy.  We won't know for another few months but that is my guesstimate.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	LA Study-virus more widespread and less deadly
Date:	4/21/2020 9:15:32 PM

I'm trying to figure out what you keep bringing this up.  Are you trying to convince yourself or us that the virus isn't a big deal.  I would point out to you that there a flu shot and Tamiflu if you get that.  There is no preventive or treatment for COVID.  I'm not sick and I don't personally know anyone that has it or has died from it, but that doesn't mean that I don't believe it will kill you if you don't take preventive measures.  

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/22/2020 8:16:19 AM

You can't figure this out?!?!?  Oh wait, you're retired so maybe you've completely forgotten what it's like to get a paycheck.  Must be nice, but tens of millions of your fellow citizens no longer have a job because the Federal and state governments have shut them down.  I am a scientist trained to think logically based on facts and data, not rank emotion and irrational fear stoked by the media nor by politicians that are motivated by one desire, to remain in power.  Recall that when this whole thing got started we were told 2 million Americans were going to die and 30% to 40% of the population were going to get the virus.  We were told the mortality rate was 300 times worse than the flu.  We were told a lot of things that turned out not to be correct.  And the economy and lives are being ruined because of fear stoked by these faulty beliefs.  

Now what if that fear is unfounded?  What if we are risking a depression based on faulty assumptions?  I know you came from government and have way more faith in them than many of us.  But they are frequently wrong.  Their scientists are frequently wrong and often make decisions that are in their best interests and not ordinary working Americans.  I see it every day.  Working in government is not some immediate gift of special insight or omniscience above and beyond what most of us who don't work for government.  So yeah, I am watching this closely and I have become even more convinced that this virus is no worse than the flu, that all the measures and the economic ruin has done little to change the bell curve and that history will judge this as an unnecessary panic, that we could have taken much less drastic economic measures that would have been just as protective and that shutting down 45 states because 5 of them are especially hard hit was a mistake.

But if you want to sit in the corner cowering in fear because of what the media and govt are saying then by all means do so.  As for me, I will continue to examine the facts and data and draw my own conclusions.  If you don't like the truth then I suggest you just watch the networks, wear you mask and live in irrational fear.  As for me, I am planning on letting the truth lead my decision making.

Name:	au67 -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/22/2020 10:45:19 AM

I am glad that you replied to Hound's post. I had to resist the urge to reply to her last night. Anyone who would question why you made your posts concerning this data  cannot be capable to  make reasonable and objective comments concerning this coronavirus shut down debacle.  I commend you on your explanation to her, but I suspect her view of this whole caronavirus issue is more emotional rather than logical.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/22/2020 11:01:24 AM

No doubt there is a lot emotion driving this and the media is loving it as are many Democrats.  I look at what motivates them and I look at what informs decision and positions on these issues.  To do otherwise is to be led around like mind-numbed sheep.....not my style to say the least. 

It simply amazes me to watch people cower in fear about a virus while the world is collapsing around them, people are being ruined financially and our economy is being devastated......as if that reality is of no importance.  It is the madness of panic and give into groupthink which eliminates the ability to think logically and critically.  And the predictable response is to trot out the victims and start to assign blame, as if we don't trade lives for economic output every single day....far more lives than will be lost to the Wuhan virus.  

I am willing to give the political class a pass for their original response.  It was based on wildly overstated models and they had no choice.  But the time has come to inject some sanity into the decision-making process based on new facts and data.  To do otherwise is irresponsible and reprehensible.  We need to get back to work and get the economy on the road to recovery.  Every day deepens the crisis, lengthens the recovery and adds more debt onto the backs of future generations.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/22/2020 4:53:06 PM

I'm hardly cowering in fear, although I do wear a mask and gloves when I go into the supermarkets.  And I don't necessarily believe everything that the government puts out - however, I do accept that earlier projections and were based on assumptions and real data has led the projections downward.  I'm glad to see that they do change the projections and don't continue to insist the earlier ones are still true.  I don't believe that the government has some crystal ball that they consult, and that they do attempt to make projections based on real data as it becomes available.  Remember that the real data is coming in from the states and not all of it is likely correct or complete. I have some experience with modeling, so I don't take it as the exact truth but I don't necessarily disregard it.  

I'm sorry you don't think I am a logical thinker, but I have managed to get by all these years - I guess you think on luck?  We both know that the economy will have to reopen and it pains me to say that there are planners likely right now calculating acceptable risk and acceptable death rates.  No one wants people to die and no one is going to come public with those kinds of calculations, but I have every belief that they are being calculated and debated, and these will guide the advice that is given about reopening.  The states will have to decide what is there acceptable risk, and the trick will be to put that risk in terms that the American people can understand without coming out and saying it.  

While you often provide an interesting perspective on things, I'm not jumping on this particular bandwagon of yours.  If it turns out you are right, then I will be the first to stand and applaud your insight. But I would remind you that just because people don't agree with you, doesn't mean they are wrong.   For your sake, I hope you and your family are able to stay healthy.  

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	AU-67
Date:	4/22/2020 4:58:43 PM

I could be insulted by your comments but I realized long ago that I will never say anything that you will agree with.  According to you, it must be a miracle that I managed to not only live, but to thrive to my current age of 65 without having had a logical or objective thought.  I guess I'm just lucky.    

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/23/2020 9:24:51 AM

Lots of people manage to survive on emotion...it's called liberalism, which I know is not your issue.  And I'm glad you're not cowering in fear but a whole heck of a lot of people are.  But I was merely responding to your question about why I keep bringing this up.  I actually think it's not only important given the decisions that have been made based on wildly incorrect models, it is critical to the decisions to come about opening up the economy.  And understanding what motivates decision makers is equally important in understanding whether what they are proposing makes sense in toto as opposed to their narrow self interest and motivation.

As for your personal decisions about wearing a mask, etc. I think those are very prudent and reasonable.  I would reiterate though that the mask is of limited protection so I recommend you keep up with the other measures.  I see some people wearing masks and not social distancing probably because they think the masks will protect them.  Unless it's N95 or above they are wrong.  And the people wearing their home made masks are getting almost no protection.  And the people wearing latex gloves are doing nothing to prevent the spread because the virus will adhere to the gloves as well as to skin.  They only help if you change them every time you touch a surface.  Unless personal protective equipment (PPE) is used properly and properly disposed it accomplishes almost nothing and can make things worse if they give people a false sense of security.

A final note on my prognostication.  Clearly I could be totally wrong and things could explode as the shelter in place rules are relaxed.  I worry about that a lot and am glad every day I am not the one that has to decide between saving lives by avoiding an economic depression versus saving lives from the virus.  I do believe based on my evaluation of the information available that it is reasonable to relax the rules.  And I will tell you I am much less worried about the Wuhan virus this spring than I am if it comes back next year in some mutated and more deadly form like the Spanish Flu did.  I hope and pray it's like SARS and just disappears.  Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/23/2020 10:37:27 AM

I was scanning a variety of news articles today, and I am convinced that there is a lot of information that is not being made public. 

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/23/2020 10:55:09 AM (updated 4/23/2020 12:24:29 PM)

Like I said, look at what is motivating people.  For the media it is all about keeping things in disarray in the hopes that Trump will lose in November. That is their sole motivation....same with Democrats and NeverTrumpists.  Nothing else matters to them and the end justifies the means even if those means are widespread misery and death.  Sounds harsh but sadly it is true.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/23/2020 7:25:16 PM

Trump holds these daily meetings as rallies. It was fun to watch him today when the doctor diagreed with him. Trump is like FLY...only wants to hear his opinion.

I think those who want to push for a reopening before the health professionals OK it  should just sign a waiver and agree to no insurance if they contract the virus and no help from paramedics. Why put CRD and other health professionals at risk?

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/24/2020 7:13:22 AM

Which health professionals?  The ones in the briefing room?  The ones on TV?  Believe me, I've heard plenty of incredibly qualified health professionals who think what we did was completely nuts.  That we are setting ourselves up for this to not go away and so on.  Like I said before, look at what is motivating them.  And stop being so one dimensional and think about all the negative effects of the shut down.  And think about why we shut down.  It wasn't to stop the virus.  It wasn't to prevent some people from dying.  It was all about not overwhelming the hospitals.  For 95% of the country not only are the hospitals not overwhelmed, they are nearly empty and are losing money because all their other services were stopped.  Think Goofy.....think......

Name:	Lifer -	Reply
Subject:	Wow....quite a question
Date:	4/24/2020 9:39:00 AM

Except abortions MM.  Killing babies is essential, to the DNC anyway. What a platform to run on...Vote for us We kill Innocents to Win Votes!!