| Name: |
Bob
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 11:21:09 AM
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I read with great interest everyone's opinion on the current market at Lake Martin. While I do think that real estate as a whole is too frothy I think Lake martin will continue to climb. Everyone is too focused on Lake Martin prices relative to those same prices in previous years. Lake Martin has become a regional if not national draw in the past few years. No longer is the lake "Montgomery's Lake". In the past 3 to 5 years Atlanta has discovered our lake and while you can debate the value of that discovery relative to quality of life, there is no dispute regarding its affects on property values. We now have a market of nearly 5 million + people 2 hrs away that continues to discover our lake. sveral years ago none of my neighbors were from out of state now "Atlanta people" are on both sides of me. I am building a new home on the lake and my agent says most of the buyers she is dealing with are from the ATL.
These new buyers from Atlanta (remember this is a market larger than the entire state of Alabama) see our property values (even now) as a bargain compared to lakes in Georgia. Futhermore you have a large segment of the "Florida Panhandle Condo Market" that no longer wish to be in the path of hurricanes. Not only are property values greatly higher on the coast but the costs of ownership are skyrocketing with rising insurance costs. This is also driving folks to our lake. When you add in the fact that so little raw land is not controlled by Al power and Russell you get the perfect cocktail for continued appreciation. A three bedroom condo in destin will cost you 1.5 million and you have to drive 6 hrs from Atlanta or 3.5 hrs from Montgomery to get there. This compares with 550+ for a condo here that is hours closer by. the bottom line is there just ain't nothing like our lake and prices will NEVER be as "affordable" as they are today. You WILL regret waiting a few years if that is your plan. There are MACRO Economics at play here and the fact that LM was "undervalued" for so many years is irrelevant. You better get on the ship now cause she has sailed...just my opinion...
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 11:32:50 AM
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Excellent. You hit it on the head. Add to that a relatively inelastic supply so from a long term perspective prices are just now reaching their respective values. I had a friend value my house I bought a few years ago for ~$200K based on what it would bring on Lake Lanier and he answered about $450K. LM was undervalued and may still be although by not as much.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 12:18:37 PM
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You are so right Bob. I am from Atlanta and looked for a year for a lake place in Georgia. We got a bad case of sticker shock and quit looking. We had a house in Auburn for our 3 kids to live in to get in state tuition. We had a man come to put in some carpet and he lived on Lake Martin so, I asked him if there were any deals on Lake Martin. I told him about our search in Georgia and he said prices on Lake Martin were 50% less than most Georgia lakes. He told us about a house he had just put carpet in on the lake. He told me the price and I laughed at him. Anyway, he convinced me to look at it and I put a contract on it the next day. My wife had not even seen it.Our timing was perfect. We bought it 2 years ago, recently had it appraised and it has more than doubled. A ton of people from Peachtree City and Newnan are also gobbling up Lake Martin property as well. Prices will continue to escalate at a phenominal rate.
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 12:46:36 PM
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People don't want to face reality Bob and Lamont. SAY IT AIN'T SO. I have been saying Lake Martin is undervalued for over three years now. Go back and read my post. Many kept laughing at me and saying: "What do you know?".
Just last year there was a series of post where many were saying things were overpriced, and the bottom will fall out within one year. I think I even challenged the naysayers to come back within the year and gloat or admit they were wrong.
I will give them a reprieve for another year or two. Then, they will be even more incorrect and out of touch.
feb's Prediction (again): Prices will continue to escalate for Lake Martin property. You can bet your dock on it.
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| Name: |
boataholic
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 12:59:32 PM
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I agree that deeded water front cabins and houses in general have a long way to go up, probably nearly doubling again before settling down. But does it look to anyone else like certain segments of the market have gone up too fast? Is there really a market right now for the dozens of 1.5 million dollar houses in the Ridge when the lots can still be had for 400,000? Is there really a market for 700, 800 and 900,000 condos?
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| Name: |
Bob
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 1:17:19 PM
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The Ridge seems overvalued just because the prices are high relative to Lake Martin. I have seen many of these homes (albeit from the water only) and they look incredible to me. These homes would fetch several million each on the coast. The key again to this market is that The Ridge is counting on a regional draw. I heard commercials this week in Atlanta on the radio for The Ridge. When you consider the size of the region that the Lake now draws there are plent y of folks who can afford a home in the 1.5 to 2.0 range.
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 2:00:43 PM
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This goes with my comment last night. If you can buy a lot in the Ridge for 350 or 400K; then build a house that cost the builder 400-450K--does that then make the property worth 1,500,000.00. The point I tried to make is that there has to be some sense of reason on the combined value of the land and the improvements.
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| Name: |
noagenda
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| Subject: |
I agree with OSMs
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Date:
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6/7/2006 2:11:47 PM
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The price that some of the builders are charging for the actual costs of the structure is ridiculously high. $200+ per sq foot for the quality(of lack of) feels high. But.......if they can get it then it is what it is...
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
Bob...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 2:11:48 PM
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Do you think that the Ridge is advertising in Atlanta because they have a shortage of houses and just want people to know how much fun we're having. NO!! They're advertising because they have an overstock of overpriced spec houses and the builders are on Russell Lands butt to sell them. There were 17 completed or near completed houses open for the show and many more being built now.
I've seen a lot of comparison of the lake to Destin (the beach). Remember that the benefit of condo ownership at the beach is that you can partially defrey the high cost with rental income--not so with a lake house--at least not yet.
As far as the beautiful houses at the Ridge; the disappointment I see is that many of the spec homes are simply subdivision plat houses with a basement added--looks good from the water, but not very functional.
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
noagenda...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 2:17:12 PM
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Most of the homes at the Ridge are listed for $400/sq.ft. and up. A 4000 sq house built on a 400K lot adds only $100/sq.ft. to the cost. The cost of construction of those houses is probably less that $200/sq.ft.
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| Name: |
boataholic
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| Subject: |
Bob...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 2:18:37 PM
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Dittos on the lack of rental income factor. That is why I think the condos are being overdone. There is probably a market for 300-$400,000 condos in lieu of a cabin, but I can't imagine a big market for $800,000 condos.
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 2:19:49 PM
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At current building cost, $450,000.000 worth of construction is only a 2,250 to 3,000 sq. ft. cabin. I think most lake houses on the Ridge are probably significantly larger. I do not know since I have not been in them, but I have driven throught the Ridge. Houses look much larger. Probably closer to over 4,500 sq. ft. Plus what else? Is there landscaping, pier, boat house, security system, seawall, septic, well, sprinkler system, driveway, etc.? . Do the places have upgrades in flooring (tile/carpet), windows (Anderson/Pella), counter tops (granite), kitchen cabinets, tile bathrooms and showers. What other upgrades such as book shelves, jacuzzi tubs, center islands in kitchen, fireplace and etc.? How much outside decking or screen porches? I don't know, but I am making a guess. Someone put us on track here.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
Relationship of Lot to Price
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Date:
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6/7/2006 4:03:13 PM
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Historically the developed land costs are 20% of the total development cost / price. That has risen to 25-30% in most Atlanta areas. Now you can probably get over 30% with waterfront or special situations such as golf but the builders/bankers feel more comfortable at a max of 30%. So a $400K lot is going to get you a $1.2- $1,5M house. Then the builder looks at the house that will fetch that much and if it works it's built.
Haven't done one in years but I think that's about right. Point is there is a relationship of lot cost to house price. So if Russell prices lots at $400K then you will get a $1.2 -$1.5M house.
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| Name: |
noagenda
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| Subject: |
noagenda...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 5:11:52 PM
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I am referencing a couple of homes near PP that are built on lease lots. The homes are on the market for $429M and $468M, at 1950 and 2050 square feet, respectively.
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| Name: |
noagenda
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| Subject: |
What about.....
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Date:
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6/7/2006 5:14:00 PM
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relationship of square foot to house price? My rule of thumb has been $100/$150 sq ft depending on perks. Any body know a builder in that range?
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
Relationship of Lot to Price
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Date:
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6/7/2006 5:51:25 PM
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Ric, your point is well taken as to the ratio of lot to house and what should be built there to make the bank 'feel' good, but that is my whole point. The builders are not putting the value into the home to justify a 1.2-1.8M price. Many of these homes are tract homes that are designed as one and 1/2 story homes. The builders have taken these plans added a basement (plus 2 bdrms and a den) and made a three story tract home. Finishing a basement doesn't cost $300 per sq foot.
I even looked through a couple of homes that are FOUR stories---AND NO ELEVATOR--but a price between 2.5 and 2.8M
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
noagenda...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 6:17:47 PM
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Interesting my wife and I looked at three new UNSOLD homes on APCo lots this afternoon just to get a feel for that market.
Home #1. About 1800-1900 sq ft. 3 bdrm 2.5 bath. NO seawall, NO dock, NO basement, shallow slough water, 100% vinyl outside including windows. Cheap carpet and glue down picture of wood flooring. Interior finish about the quality of a medium priced mobile home. Price: $479,000. My educated estimate of total cost to build $125K-175K.
Home #2. Probably 2000 sq ft. 4 Bdrm/3 bath. 100% Hardiplank outside. Interior finish equal to a $150K tract home. New pine flooring (nice touch) in some rooms. End of slough lot with 2-3 ft of water--so shallow grass was growing in the water. Had pier, no seawall. 500ft driveway without even gravel. Price: $459,000 Cost to build: $175K-200K.
Home #3. About 2000sq ft. 4 bed/3 bath, Pier NO seawall, End of slough, shallow 3-5 ft. Wood siding exterior. Vaulted ceiling in den. Den had nice loft but there was NO access to it. Cheap wood flooring and commercial looking cheap carpeting. Price: $539,000 Cost to build: $200,000.
Oh, by the way, all had granite counter tops, but then most mobile homes offer granite these days. I didn't go through this process to report back to the forum--I'm considering building some lake homes--I know now that I can offer a better product at a lot lower price and still make a killing.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
Relationship of Lot to Price
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Date:
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6/7/2006 7:00:31 PM
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Precisely. The quality is just not there. On the other hand to attract top notch builders that produce a certain volume you have to commit to put the asphalt down. Russell is reluctant to do this. That's not all bad.
There are some local boys that are enjoying the bonanza now. We'll see if it continues. I am getting lots and I mean lots of stuff in my mailbox for lake properties in the region now and I'll be interested to see how it affects LM now that prices are much higher.
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| Name: |
JIM
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| Subject: |
Relationship of Lot to Price
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Date:
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6/7/2006 7:01:35 PM
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What do y`all think is going to happen to Pleasure Point when the lease is renogiated in Jan. 2007? Talking about 37 acres of prime property with mobile homes on it, owned by the Southern Co.
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| Name: |
Maverick
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| Subject: |
Whats Driving the Market
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Date:
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6/7/2006 7:07:19 PM
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Baby Boomers
Atlanta Area Lake Prices
Beach Owners Tired of Hurricanes
2 Major Property Owners - Russell and APCO - which have controlled growth over the years, thereby keeping supply low and demand high.
My opinion is prices will continue to rise for the next 5+ years, so long as the above continue to drive the market and the growth is controlled.
Anybody have any data on Lake Lanier housing appreciation over the past 3 years or so and the current market price for say a 3 bedroom / 2 bath home on Lanier with say 250 feet of deep water footage, decent lot, etc.
Just curious as to how Lake Martin prices compare to Lanier as of today. Also if you have any data on Lanier vs. LM say 3 years ago that would be of interest as well. As prices on Lanier will continue to drive Lake Martin prices and demand.
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
Relationship of Lot to Price
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Date:
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6/7/2006 7:59:48 PM
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I drove through Pleasure Point today-bought a Coke at the store. What are the terms of the lease now? Do the store owners control all the trailer lots? There's not a whole lot of waterfront so the alternative uses are limited to MORE condos or existing use. What do you think?
By the way, APCo had put up signs for the annual upcoming bid for leases, but all the signs were removed today. What's up?
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
Whats Driving the Market
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Date:
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6/7/2006 8:07:04 PM
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Is there a direct correlation between Martin and Lanier? I kinda see Lanier as a 'see and be seen' lake (a big thing to ATLans) and Martin which I see as a get away from it all place. Lanier is a 'big pool' lake for big boats while Martin is a cove lake. Don't think there is a direct correlation.
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| Name: |
JIM
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| Subject: |
Relationship of Lot to Price
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Date:
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6/7/2006 8:28:14 PM
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The store is the main lease of the 37 acreas, the lots are sub leased . There are 1 hundred lots that are sub leased by the owners of the store @ approx. $285.00 a month, plus the cabins,and boat storage stalls. It was never intended for single or double wide trailers to be there,only campers. Kinda got outta hand by someone not doing what the intent was.
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| Name: |
Maverick
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| Subject: |
Whats Driving the Market
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Date:
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6/7/2006 8:51:06 PM
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The correlation is why pay whatever at Lanier vs. some portion thereof at Martin, several years ago. As most GA folks I know are or where buying at Martin because Lanier was overcrowded and overpriced as compared to Martin.
So in my opinion lake prices in Georgia can in fact drive Martin prices.
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
Relationship of Lot to Price
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Date:
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6/7/2006 9:56:10 PM
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There have been mobile homes there at least since the 70s. At this point, hopefully it'll be kept like it is. The place is kept clean and those 100 families are better than 800 condos.
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| Name: |
cobra
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/7/2006 10:41:47 PM
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I never thought I would see the day that property on a lake would be worth more that commercial property on highway 280. I own a lot on 280(1 acre) and have for 30 years. When will it skyrocket the way lake property has?? I just wish I had bought on lake martin in 1976 instead of 280.
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| Name: |
noagenda
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| Subject: |
property values...not Lanier
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Date:
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6/8/2006 9:58:15 AM
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Lanier is not the comparision I would use. Lanier/Altoona have issues traffic/big boats/pollution/muddy water. The real comps should in the lakes of North GA. Lake Burton, Blue Ridge/Nottley, etc. These lakes are small but clean and topically very pretty. Graet for year round appeal due to the mountainous terrain. Homes are on steep lots. Prices are sky high, especially on Burton where a lot of the land is leased by GP. I looked prior to Martin when I purcahsed 8 years ago. Prices were high then probably astronomical now.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
property values...not Lanier
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Date:
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6/8/2006 10:27:34 AM
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Lanier= overcrowded cess pool.
Oconee= snooty, overpriced, shallow, muddy, no boathouses allowed. Can't touch anything for less than 1 mill.
Burton= Gorgeous, mountains, clean but, the most expensive property in Ga.
Hartwell= Probably the best bet. Mountainous and clean. Still some bargains but, still more expensive than Martin.
Blue Ridge= There was an article in the AJC about 5 years ago proclaiming what an undiscovered bargain it was. Could not touch anything on good water for less than $500,000 and this was 5 years ago. They had lots for $200,000 on bad water next to trailor parks.
Don't know anything about the lakes south of Atlanta, such as Sinclair and others. Even at todays prices, Lake Martin is still a bargain and, in my opinion, has the most charm.
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| Name: |
2thelake
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| Subject: |
simple thought
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Date:
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6/8/2006 10:51:25 AM
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It just makes sense.... anything with "water" has always been your best real estate investment..whether it be the ocean, river, lake, pond, creek etc... They are not making any more "shorelines" and they aren't making lakes anymore. The hurricanes keep hitting the beach and the 4-5hr drive if you live in Bham or surrounding area can get quite old. Atlanta's Lake Lanier is overcroweded already.. All other AL lakes seem to have some negative point that Lake Martin does not (pollution, steep shorelines, etc....) this said..... 2+2=4....i.e, our Lake Martin Property Values should continue to consistently rise. Sure beats the stock market right now. I'm just thankful we bought 3yrs ago cause sure couldn't get what we got then today!
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| Name: |
HTMLman
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| Subject: |
simple thought
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Date:
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6/8/2006 11:02:04 AM
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Anyone who thinks LM is over priced, just log onto a national real estate agency and see what a 2000 sq ft house is in CA. A friend just paid $175 per sq ft. $400,000 is ENTRY level.
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| Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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| Subject: |
simple thought
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Date:
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6/8/2006 11:04:45 AM
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People wil always pay to look at water even if is a swamp.
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| Name: |
Island Camper
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| Subject: |
APCO Leases
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Date:
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6/8/2006 11:24:33 AM
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Does anybody have the contact info to get the APCO lease information? I had a link to it on www.lakemartinjournal.com, but that site is not working.
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| Name: |
FLee
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/8/2006 1:08:03 PM
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We are constantly looking for more lake property. If you buy at fair market value today, it will be a bargain next year.
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| Name: |
2thelake
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| Subject: |
property values...
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Date:
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6/8/2006 2:07:05 PM
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Yes to that statement and it will be a nice return on your investment as well!
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