Name:   copperline - Subject:   Reply to Hodja Date:   5/9/2016 7:49:54 PM

You were right when you sensed some hesitation in my last post.  I do have concerns about what is happening  & worry that things could get very bad in a hurry during the next few months.  I think we are about to enter a real mud slinging presidential campaign, something far worse than what we have seen before.   That will be very bad for us as a nation, I think.

In the end, I believe the next president will be Hillary Clinton… but I am done with under-estimating Donald Trump.   And while I know people on this forum who will say it is foolish to support Clinton….  I am proud to say that at least the Democratic Party is not about to nominate Al Sharpton. 

So my biggest fear is something happening to the Democratic nominee and Trump wins the general election.  That, IMO, would be a game changer in ways that I don’t think his supporters have imagined.    For instance, Trump’s list of what he would do in his first 100 days includes creating plans for the Wall on Mexico’s border, begin rounding up 11 million people to deport, deprive  14 million people of health insurance  by “repealing” the ACA, and banning Muslims from entering the country. 

According to a recent analysis on the US economy, the deportation of 11 million aliens (8.8 million of whom have jobs), will cause the Gross Domestic Product to shrink by 2%.   A reduction of GDP on that order will be a self-inflicted wound in an already weak world economy.    Note that one of the sources of this analysis is the conservative American Action Forum.   The expense and economic impact of this crazy idea will be on TOP of millions people losing their health insurance, and quite a few allies wondering if having our Immigration Service conducting religion screenings isn’t evidence that we have lost our minds as a nation.   As a country, we seem to have lost sight of the fact that Trump’s proposals are outrageous.

 [www.cnbc.com/2015/08/17/deporting-undocumented-workers-would-be-very-costly] [www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/the-conservative-case-against-enforcing-immigration-laws/387004/y.html]

The stock market will likely tank for the simple reason that the stock market hates uncertainty… and Donald Trump is uncertainty in spades.   His comments on the US debt recently mentioned defaulting on the national debt & “renegotiating” with creditors to take haircuts.  That kind of talk from a Presidential candidate is itself dangerous.     Besides the fact that a default would kill the US economy, it would also clear the way for the Chinese Yuan to become the preferred international currency.  After that, we will be in a whole new world of Chinese economics.  

 That’s probably not a very good idea, Donald….but since he has used this tactic to advanced his own personal wealth in the past, so he sees no harm in it when it comes to global economics.   For a Presidential candidate to endorse a national default is the height of irresponsibility because of the message it sends the rest of the world….that the US is not a safe place to invest, the dollar isn’t steady and predictable.  

I expect that he will shortly retract his statement on this one as he has done on so many issues before.   And that points to a huge problem: he speaks before he thinks and he doesn’t mind throwing half-baked ideas out in public.   When you are a billionaire  you can afford to say anything you want because you are pretty much immune from retaliation, but when you are POTUS you do not get to shoot your mouth off like a teenager with a subscription to The National Inquirer.   At this level, words have consequences, statements are going to cause reactions that are social, political, international, and/or economic.   Trump’s trademark is that he is bold & brash, and that he is quick to go on the offense.   In the big, complex and increasingly dangerous world….Trump’s style will make him a loose cannon. 

I saw an interesting interview with 3 journalists who cover national intelligence issues out of Washington.  David Ignatious was one of them.  They said that usual protocol is to give the respective party nominees an in-depth national intelligence briefing after they are finished with the conventions.  They said that Intelligence briefers that would represent NSA, CIA, the Pentagon intelligence services are very worried about briefing Trump for a couple of reasons.  One is that his personal style is to be completely off the cuff and unfiltered in public speaking, and the other is that he does not appear to make distinctions between what he might have read, heard casually, saw on TV, or got from an authoritative source.  For instance, he confidently announced that Ted Cruz’ father was involved with the assassination of JFK.  When source-checked, this really did turn out to be a story line published in supermarket tabloids… hardly a reputable source for a presidential candidate.   What if Trump shoots from the hip and what comes out happens to be a national secret?

Security briefers worry about his ability to compartmentalize sensitive  national intelligence information when he is so impulsive in his public speaking style and inclined to bold pronouncements poorly considered.  So the intelligence community is worried about how likely a guy with his character type will be able to keep extraordinarily sensitive information in house.    I’d say that’s worth thinking about.    

This election cycle could be really damaging to the country, I  think.  It will be all about character and temperament when we should be talking national priorities.   We have already seen Trump engage in debates in ways that make them unsuitable for a junior high school civics class to watch…. Unless you want to encourage those kids to think that discussion of penis size is a worthy Presidential subject.  Name calling and insinuations (“Little Marco”,   “Lying Ted”) are really poor examples of the level of conversation our national leaders need to be displaying for our kids.  What lessons will they take away from a presidential campaign that is that juvenile?   Do we admire potential leaders when they are this shallow and lacking in maturity?   Moreover, do we want to encourage such a poor level of political discussion, avoiding meaningful debate in favor of insults and catchy phrases?  

I mean, let’s face it guys… Trump is a manifestation of a movement to Stop Political Correctness, right?   Let us be as foul as we want to be with each other.   Let’s talk about each other’s wives & family in the most insulting ways we can think of.  It’s OK.   It’s no longer cool to be polite & thoughtful, let’s get in each other’s face.

Today, I heard that John McCain endorsed Trump.   I’m not a McCain supporter, but I have great respect for him as a war hero & POW.   It must have taken a lot for him to endorse a really undeserving Trump who had made light of his capture and years of imprisonment.   It makes me a bit sick, really.   In an act of loyalty to his party, he is endorsing a man who was unashamedly criticizing him for being captured, as if he was a loser.   My God, is anybody going to hold Trump accountable for what he says?   Of all the crap to ever come out of Trump’s mouth, that had to be the worse.

To all my conservative friends, I’m saying this:   I hope you can find someone you can confidently say was a good choice for your vote (even if it’s not Clinton).     I just don’t see how that can ever be Donald Trump.