Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish Date:   3/19/2020 3:37:11 PM (updated 3/19/2020 4:02:15 PM)

So the data is in and has been examined for the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined.  Some highlights from the study:

• Out of the 3,711 passengers only around 17% of the passengers were infected, which is about 630 passengers.
• Out of the 630 passengers that were infected a total of 7 died which is a 1.1% mortality rate (which is skewed upward due to the age dsitribution of the passengers).
• Of the 3,711 passengers 58% of them were over age 60.  Only 24% of the general population is over age 65.
• The age range of those that died was from 70-80 with 6 of the 7 between 70 and 79 (which accounted for around 1/3rd of the passengers).  There were zero deaths age 69 and below which accounted for the remaining 2,000 or so passengers.
• Approximately 50% of those infected were asymptomatic.  Those most likely to be symptomatic were in the age group 20-49.  Children under age 9 were all asymptomatic.
• 75% of those over age 80 were not infected.

So what does this tell us?  First of all, the inflated mortality rates being discussed are faulty because they are basing them only on confirmed cases.  There are likely tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of cases that were never tested.  Secondly, while the mortality rate appears to be higher than the common influenza (which is 0.1%), it is actually lower for all age groups, including seniors.  If you adjust for the skewed ages of the passengers, which isn't easy, the mortality rate is likely on par with the common influenza if not lower  Third, despite being in an environment that is highly likely to be transmissive of any virus, 83% of the passengers were not infected.

If you were to extrapolate this to the entire population it would be a huge error in logic.  In no way are the conditions for the general population remotely similar to the close confines of a cruise ship filled with a disproportionate number of seniors.  It does explain the higher numbers in urban settings given a relatively closer proximity of the people using mass transit, etc.  However, the increasing number of cases we are seeing are a result of increased testing and in no way represents some sort of pandemic.  Don't count on the media reporting these results.  As this data becomes more widely available and as the news of potentially effective and commonly available therapies are available we will see the panic fade away and the markets to begin to recover as bsuinesses reopen and people get back to work. 

Keep calm.....chive on.  Prepare for Archie and Goofy to be depressed that more people didn't die and the economy is recovering from the media-induced panic.  And as Ilhan Omar and Gov. Cuomo recently said, President Trump is doing a fantastic job.  I agree with them.

Here is the raw data from the study.