Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Interesting and why you should read the paper Date:   4/25/2022 9:57:53 AM (updated 4/25/2022 10:01:39 AM)

Couple of observations. 

First, the title of the chart mentions "25 U.S. jurisdictions" which is kind of funny since the text refers to 25 state and local health departments.  There are a total of 50 state and 2,800 local health departments.  So they gathered data from 0.9% of them for this study.  Not exactly a robust sample size but they indicated that these health departments collected the data they believed they needed for the study.  But the data set did include a decent proportion of the population which is helpful.

Second, one of the most glaring limitations of the study was the following, which I quote. "Second, this ecological study lacked multivariable adjustments, and causality could not be determined. Possible differences in testing, infection-derived immunity, waning of vaccine-derived immunity, or prevention behaviors by age and vaccination status might partly explain differences in rates between groups; trends are likely affected by temporal changes in testing or reporting."  This essentially calls into question the entire study as multivariable adjustments to those of us in the world of science are critical to determination of causation.  Without this analysis, which they inexplicably did not do, renders their conclusion speculative at best.....you know the old saw...correlation is not causation.

Third, the majority of the benefit was with adults over age 60 and especially those over age 60 and boosted.  This is something I have been saying from the outset, if you are older and have two or more comorbidities then my view is the experimental gene therapies are probably worth the risks as we know them today.  Over the long run as we learn more about the risks that could certainly change.

Fourth, because of the gap in reporting they were unable to conclude anything about the Omicron variant which is dominant right now.  If you look at the numbers for Omicron they are very similar between vaxxed and unvaxxed, but you can't conclude anything because I suspect the percentage of fully vaxxed during Omicron was higher than the earlier versions so even though about the same, it could demonstrate that the vaccines are helpful in preventing infection and death from that variant.  Would need more study.

So my conclusion about this study is that depsite its flaws there may be a benefit from the vaccines in preventing infection and death but this study doesn't get us to a definitive answer because of the glaring limitation of multivariable analysis.  What is obvious is that there is a very good reason they changed the definition of vaccine for these gene therapies because while they may reduce the IRR they are woefully inadequate in comparison to real vaccines in reducing/eliminating the risk of infection.  Hopefully further studies are conducted to determine if in fact there is a correlation with IRR that reaches the threshold of causation.  As of today the question is still an open one......so no Virginia, this study does not demonstrate that they work.....but does demonstrate that they may be helpful, especially for the elderly.