Name:   copperline - Subject:   Trump & the "rigged election" Date:   10/21/2016 8:17:20 AM

This post is partly para-phrased from an Editorial in this morning’s Washington Post. 

Trump spreads a contradictory message to his supporters when he says he will win the election ‘bigly’ but that the system is rigged against him by a media-banker-Democratic Party-FBI-elite alliance of conspirators.   At other times, he has claimed that Mexican nationals are pouring over the border to vote for Clinton or that dead people always vote for Democrats.

 As it turns out, he is suppressing his own vote by making these outrageous claims.

 Studies of voting patterns & the influence of political messaging show that while this rhetoric may rile up a handful of die-hard Trump supporters, the larger effect will be to suppress the vote among marginal & on-the-fence voters who would vote for Trump should they arrive at the polls.   That’s because when a marginally-engaged voter hears the message that the election results are rigged against them, they will be LESS likely to show up… because this message magnifies their belief that they are going to lose anyway.

 Lower voter turn-out by Trump supporters dooms the Trump campaign, and his message that all is lost is exactly the wrong thing to motivate people who are marginally engaged in the political process anyway.  Trump’s claim of electoral corruption is most likely to be seen as credible & convincing by his own supporters… the constituency he needs to motivate to arrive at the polls and vote.

 What it could also do is increase the likelihood of violence at some polling places.   Trump’s call for his supporters to become self-appointed poll watchers could influence some people to arrive at the polls for the purpose of “observing at close hand” to prevent suspected “illegals” from casting ballots.    In many states, there are requirements for official poll watchers who must be trained and prepared for their task… and procedures in place for removing people who might disrupt balloting.   They can, and should, take voter intimidation seriously at the polls.  

But suppose, for example, that Trump supporters also chose to exercise their 2^nd Amendment Rights and put their guns on display while glaring at non-white voters at polling stations…….

 The forced removal of untrained Trump supporters who respond to their candidate’s call to become ‘monitors’ at polling places could give the appearance of rigged elections to his minions, and add to the potential for violence if poll-disrupting Trump ‘monitors’ are ordered to back away from carrying out the ‘mission’ ordered by their candidate. 

 If you take a step back and ask yourself why Trump would push a campaign message that would suppress the turnout of exactly those people he needs to win, it brings to mind an earlier theory that Trump never wanted the Presidency in the first place… instead he wanted to increase his name recognition and the effect of his ‘brand’ on the public.   Maybe he doesn’t really want the responsibilities of the office, nor the confinements that it would bring to his lifestyle.