Name:   MAJ USA RET - Subject:   bit players - BIG OPERA Date:   12/10/2018 12:23:27 AM (updated 12/10/2018 12:27:22 AM)

Architect – “...if the market is negative for 2018 will you give any blame to Trump and if not where do you place the blame?”     

I object to your use of the word “blame.”  Perhaps you should use the term “effect.”  Thus, your question would be “…if the market is negative for 2018 will you give any effect to Trump and if not where do you place the effect?”     

I have been decidedly involved in the stock market since 1975.  In that time… until 2014… I was mostly in a “buy” and “hold” position.  Realizing that politics had some effect on the market… and politics was an ephemeral phenomenon, I always… on the good advice of my father… persevered.   In 2002 we lost about 16% of our portfolio (Bush).  In 2004 we gained 23% (Bush).  BUT, I expected to… in the long run… gain 3.5% per year.  In fact, I have gained 7.2% (Ford-Trump). 

The Obama years were down from my previous experience (net 7.5%)… but better than expected at 5.8% because I had faith that American businesses would NOT give up.  AND, I also invested in international corporations and in bonds. I wasn't selling.

Yes, as you can see, The Obama years were down… but, not abysmally. So far… the Trump years are looking at 14%+/-… notwithstanding that I am required to take RMDs.  (AND, I am still invested in international corporations and in bonds.)

Architect, you do not seem to understand performance in the stocks and bonds market. You do not seem to understand that any one president is but a contributor to the net return on investment during his tenure.  Your comments do not include the dynamics of political and regulatory environments. Performance is not the claim of President Trump… Obama… nor President Bush.  They are but bit performers in a very big opera.

I CAN tell you that 14% is much more appealing to me than 5.8%... if I MUST assign “blame.”

- LMF Curmudgeon