Name:   CRD - Subject:   Step 2 Date:   3/23/2021 10:59:08 AM (updated 3/23/2021 11:00:46 AM)

Well done Archie.  Now let's progress.  Having once in my lifetime gone through a historic reno, I know the detail that architects (if that is your profession) are called to produce.  You certainly don't want to say to the trim man, just frame the interior window with whatever you like.  You draw the window trim from all angles, define the cuts, define the sill length and width, the casing, trim style etc all to the Nth detail in your drawings.   What concerns me is your apparent lack of the same attention to detail in your myriad of comments defining fatality rates of COVID, details that those of us in the profession pay attention to.   The Archie Ratio should have many asterisks placed by its side that more accurately define the number.  For instance, beside your total monthly COVID cases should read "does not include those who are COVID positive, have antibodies and are or have been asymptomatic and not counted", or "does not include the false positives", or "does not stratify on basis of age groups" or "does not stratify on basis of ethnicity", or "does not stratify on basis of co-morbidities", or "does not stratify based upon nation of interest", etc etc.  As well, your fatality numbers should likewise be associated with asterisks similar to "numbers may be inflated due to death with COVID as opposed to death attributed to COVID sequelae" and "age group stratification not deemed necessary by Archie", or "ethnicity stratification is worthless according to Archie", or "these are only US statistics, which may differ vastly around the world, but why bring that to anyone's attention, I am just trying to make a belligerent point".  

For someone who supposedly was trained to pay attention to detail, your mindnumbingly simplistic logic that you purport as true science continues to baffle yet amuse me, but it may be par for the course with you, RE your consistent "orange man bad" posture. So, let's get back to the distributive property which you neatly defined.

Assume that A= your 2% fatality rate.

Assume that B=COVID positives according to various age stratifications, with B1 age 0-7, B2 8-19, B3 20-29 and so on.  You could stratify for ethnicity, comorbities, nation of interest, also.  For this example only, 

A X (B1 + B2 + B3 etc)  equals (A X B1)  + (A X B2) + (A X B3) etc.  However, your blanket statement that the fatality rate for all cases of COVID positive individuals is 2% would require that 2% of those 20-29 yoa would also succumb to the disease, and we know that is not the case.  Different age groups have different fatality rates.  Point again being that unless you stratfiy and define, the Archie Ratio in the way you have calculated it, is a number (that you have denied saying but have now quoted going on double digits), that paints the severity of this disease with such a broad stroke, that it is meaningless. 

Again, all that this proves Archie is that you can obtain numbers from JH, plug them into your formula and with scientific chutzpah, define a pandemic in your own terms.  All OK with me Archie, whatever floats your boat, but nonetheless, reeks of lack of merit.