Name:   Talullahhound - Subject:   Wow....quite a question Date:   4/22/2020 4:53:06 PM

I'm hardly cowering in fear, although I do wear a mask and gloves when I go into the supermarkets.  And I don't necessarily believe everything that the government puts out - however, I do accept that earlier projections and were based on assumptions and real data has led the projections downward.  I'm glad to see that they do change the projections and don't continue to insist the earlier ones are still true.  I don't believe that the government has some crystal ball that they consult, and that they do attempt to make projections based on real data as it becomes available.  Remember that the real data is coming in from the states and not all of it is likely correct or complete. I have some experience with modeling, so I don't take it as the exact truth but I don't necessarily disregard it.  

I'm sorry you don't think I am a logical thinker, but I have managed to get by all these years - I guess you think on luck?  We both know that the economy will have to reopen and it pains me to say that there are planners likely right now calculating acceptable risk and acceptable death rates.  No one wants people to die and no one is going to come public with those kinds of calculations, but I have every belief that they are being calculated and debated, and these will guide the advice that is given about reopening.  The states will have to decide what is there acceptable risk, and the trick will be to put that risk in terms that the American people can understand without coming out and saying it.  

While you often provide an interesting perspective on things, I'm not jumping on this particular bandwagon of yours.  If it turns out you are right, then I will be the first to stand and applaud your insight. But I would remind you that just because people don't agree with you, doesn't mean they are wrong.   For your sake, I hope you and your family are able to stay healthy.